Hail and Damaging Wind in Illinois, May 1, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
205 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

TIMING OF CONVECTION IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STAYING VERY ACTIVE AT THIS HOUR OF
THE NIGHT...WITH LINES OF STORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND BEYOND. INTENSITY OF THE STORMS IS BEING
MAINTAINED BY A 35 TO 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VORT MAX MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...ROTATING AROUND A MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVN REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ETA...TAKING THE FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING...THEN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE ETA SHOWS THE FRONT BECOMING
RATHER DIFFUSE AND HARD TO PINPOINT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY HAVE THAT EFFECT ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE ETA/AVN SOLUTIONS ARE BASICALLY SIMILAR AND
ACCEPTED.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REFIRE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT OR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI/ILLINOIS. HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD THIN/DISSIPATE AS IT
CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF SUN...CAPES SHOULD
AGAIN APPROACH OR EXCEED 2000 J/KG AS HAPPENED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS IN SE MISSOURI/SRN ILLINOIS FOR LATE
TODAY...WITH CHANCE POPS FURTHER SE. SEASONABLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS
/AROUND MINUS 16 AT 500 MB/ AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. WEAK MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS THIS MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATER TODAY.
STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.

WILL REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR FRIDAY AS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANY LINGERING POST FRONTAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD YIELD TO SUNSHINE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING SUN AND A FAIRLY WARM START TO THE
DAY...WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER NGM MOS HIGHS.

MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. NEW
ETA BRINGS QPF INTO SRN ILLINOIS/SE MISSOURI ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVN SPREADS IT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL
INTRODUCE POPS AREAWIDE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKS LIKE
MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BECOMING
SURFACE BASED BY MONDAY. AVN INDICATES THIS WILL BE A WELL DEVELOPED
SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

.PAH...NONE.

MY

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-021000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1043 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. FOR TODAY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WILL
BE SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MORE STABLE...AND A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE NEEDED IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ACTIVATION WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WEST KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWEST
INDIANA.

MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-011600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
933 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT 930 AM...
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
AROUND FREDERICKTOWN TO VAN BUREN MISSOURI. AS THIS LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH...HAIL UP
TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE. COMMUNITIES IMPACTED BY THIS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 1100 AM INCLUDE PERRYVILLE...
GREENVILLE...DONIPHAN...AND POPLAR BLUFF.

PRESLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1010 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1004 AM    6SE ELSINORE              MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/01/03   BUTLER                         REPORTED BY EOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1038 AM CDT THU MAY 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1032 AM    6W DEXTER                 MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/01/03   STODDARD                       REPORTED BY EMA

ILZ075>078-080>094-KYZ001>014-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-011700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2003

AT 1100 AM...PADUCAH DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO JUST WEST OF NEW MADRID
MISSOURI. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. BY NOON...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD BE FROM NEAR
SHAWNEETOWN ILLINOIS TO PADUCAH AND HICKMAN IN WEST KENTUCKY.
SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM FOR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND MOST OF WESTERN KENTUCKY
WEST OF THE LAKES AREA. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION...SOME COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL OR STRONG WIND.