High Wind in Illinois, June 10, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL IL AS
SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS. LEANED WITH THE GFS MODEL THIS RUN WITH MORE SUPPORT FROM
THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS. FORECAST CONCERN IS ADDRESSING SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE TODAY AND TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS
THROUGH WED. ALSO WILL NEED TO SEE WHERE BOUNDARY WILL GO AS THIS
WILL BE THE BEST FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

LARGE MCS OVER SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO EARLY THIS MORNING AND
MOVING SE ACROSS MO AND TOWARD NW IL. STRONGEST STORMS MOVING SE
ACROSS MO AND SUPPORTED BY 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH GOOD MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. 1000 MB LOW WAS JUST WEST OF SIOUX FALLS SD
WITH A FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR EASTERN SD AND NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL
KS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND BECOME
MORE ELEVATED AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL IL. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS TODAY FOR MCS ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-55 AND FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
AS ATMOSHPERE DESTABLIZES DURING MIDDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS
NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE TODAY AS WHAT THEY WERE SHOWING WITH
YESTERDAYS RUNS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WHILE LIFTED INDICES AT LEAST MINUS 2 TO 4C AND CAPES AT LEAST
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. THINK CONVECTION FOCUS OVER NW CWA THIS MORNING
TO SHIFT INTO SE CWA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND INTO WED AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SE INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN. ETA CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER
NORTH WITH FRONT AND QPF AS FAR NORTH AS I-80 WED AND THU. SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL/IN
WED AND ENHANCES CONVECTION IN SE CWA AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
HEAVY RAIN WED FROM I-70 SOUTH. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND COULD SEE A COUPLE
OF INCHES OF RAIN SE ILX CWA THRU WED NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH AS FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...BUT AREAS FROM I-70 SE
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL ELEVATE SE AREAS INTO LIKELY CAT OF
CONVECTION AND ADD CHANCE TO CENTRAL/I-72 CORRIDOR WED AND WED NIGHT.

MODELS TENDING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IL/IN LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WHERE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE.
WILL KEEP CHANCE OF CONVECTION NORTH OF I-70 TOO FROM FRIDAY ON AS
UNCERTAINTY IN SHORT WAVES AND BOUNDARY POSITION THAT FAR OUT. DOES
LOOK DRIER THE FURTHER NORTH YOU GET INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

.ILX...NONE.

HUETTL

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
550 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE
FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. HEAVY RAINS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

HALL