Illinois, 2003

Flood in Illinois, February 23 to 28, 2003

February 23 to 28, 2003 · NWS PAH · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 23, 12:52 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 23, 12:52 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 PM SUN FEB 23 2003

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT. UPSTREAM
SURFACE OBS AND KSGF/KLZK RADARS SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED BAND OF
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW OVER THE OZARKS. SEE SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NUMBER 146 FOR DETAILS ON THIS SNOW BAND. THE SNOW IS OCCURRING IN A
BAND OF STRONG 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COMPACT 500 MB
SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER NE OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING.

MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM ARE SUBTLE...BUT WOULD
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOW AMOUNTS IN OUR AREA. ETA HAS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF ANY PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...TAKING
THE LOW NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THEN ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. THIS TRACK WOULD PUSH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WELL BACK INTO
THE CURRENT WARNING AREA. HOWEVER...NGM/GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY FROM LITTLE ROCK TO HOPKINSVILLE. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE FURTHER SOUTH GFS...SINCE IT HAS SHOWN THE MOST RUN
TO RUN CONSISTENCY. WILL LEAVE WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS UNCHANGED.
GFS QPF GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH IN PARTS OF
THE WARNING AREA. EXPECT SOME 6 INCH TOTALS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SE MISSOURI...NORTHEAST TO MDH/MVN AREAS. A SHARP GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE HOPKINSVILLE
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THE PRECIP TYPE HANDLED WELL.
THE SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE FROM THE AVN MODEL REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT. WHERE PRECIP IS ALL
RAIN...QPF WILL BE LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH AND NOT A FLOODING
CONCERN.

MONDAY WILL BE ONE OF THE FEW DRY PERIODS THIS WEEK AS COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT SHORTLY BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE. AREAS WITH FRESH SNOWCOVER WILL BE NEAR THE COLDER
AVN MOS TEMP GUIDANCE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTER PRECIP
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RATHER WEAK 700 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
AND FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...BUT MODEL QPF GUIDANCE INDICATES NO MORE
THAN AN INCH. FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS AGAIN
CONTINUES TO PAINT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF OVER THE FORECAST AREA...EVEN
THOUGH LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFICULT TO FIND. WILL CONTINUE VERY
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS.

THE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES.
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING COLDER WITH EACH RUN...AS IT TRACKS A SURFACE
LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE KENTUCKY BORDER. THIS WOULD MEAN A
FROZEN OR FREEZING PRECIP EVENT FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES...AND RAIN OR
FREEZING PRECIP IN THE SOUTH. SINCE THE EUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO
DEPICT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THICKNESSES...WILL LEAVE GENERIC RAIN OR
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.

GFS INDICATES A PROCESSION OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THICKNESSES MARGINAL FOR PRECIP
TYPE. QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT IF THERE IS ANY. WILL FOLLOW HPC
GUIDANCE FOR PRECIP CHANCES IN DAYS 5 THROUGH 7.

COORDINATION WITH MEM.

.PAH...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM POPLAR
BLUFF MO...CAPE GIRARDEAU MO...EVANSVILLE IN. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TONIGHT FROM POPLAR BLUFF MO TO PADUCAH KY TO OWENSBORO KY.

MY
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 23, 5:00 AM CST, 9 hours before
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
500 AM CST SUN FEB 23 2003

...WINTER STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ACCUMULATING SNOWS WILL RETURN ACROSS ALL OF THE QUAD STATE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY...THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.  A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE WARNING.  FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM...PLEASE REFERENCE THE NWS
PRODUCT /WSWPAH/.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW ACROSS THE QUAD STATE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND OTHER OBSERVERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO RELAY REPORTS OF SNOW AMOUNTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

DRS

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, White

When
February 23, 2:00 PM CST to February 28, 11:59 PM CST
Where
White forecast zone
Reported by
AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC
Coordinates
38.088, -88.180 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Minor flooding of the Little Wabash River occurred in the Carmi area. The flood crest of 28.1 feet on February 28 was about one foot over flood stage. A number of county roads were flooded, creating problems for oil field pumpers.

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Illinois in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, February 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5341092.