High Wind in Hawaii, December 29 to 30, 2003

NARRATIVE SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION FOR AMERICAN SAMOA AND THE INDEPENDENT
STATE OF SAMOA

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE SURFACE LOW IS ABOUT 500 NM WEST. SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF SAVAII WITH THE MAIN
CONVERGENCE BAND ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF SAMOA. THERE ARE SEVERAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF SAVAII BUT FEWER CLOUDS IN YOUR
VICINITY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN JUST TO YOUR SOUTH.  MODELS
DISAGREE ON MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. GFS PLACES IT ABOUT 350 NM
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE UK MODEL HAS IT WEAKER AND OVER THE
INDEPENDENT STATE. THE NOGAPS PLACES IT FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
PRIMARILY INTERIOR SHOWERS WITH THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH WITH AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES.

NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE GFS MODEL DEEPENS THE THE SURFACE LOW AND MOVES IT ABOUT 150 NM
SOUTH OF SAVAII ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL PULL THE CONVERGENCE BAND
SOUTHWARD ONTO THE SAMOAN ISLANDS BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS SPELLS A WET SCENARIO OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS. THE NOGAPS LEAVES ONLY A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SAMOA
BUT ALSO MOVES THE CONVERGENCE ONTO YOU. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10
MPH THURSDAY AND MAY INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH OR HIGHER IF THE LOW
DEVELOPS AS FORECAST BY THE GFS.

NARRATIVE DISCUSSION FOR TUVALU

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TUVALU TIME...
THERE ARE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 50 NM WEST OF FUNAFUTI BUT
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS YOUR ISLANDS.  COMPUTER MODELS
INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THE WET WESTERLY FLOW AS THE LOW ABOUT
300 NM SOUTH MOVES SLOWLY EAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE COMPUTER MODELS
DISAGREE ON ITS PLACEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. WEST
WINDS 15 MPH WEDNESDAY BECOMING SOUTHWEST THURSDAY.