Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Nevada, December 29 to 30, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
150 AM PST MON DEC 29 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW TO NORTHERN NEVADA AND PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEVADA WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A SERIES OF
PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN NEW
YEARS DAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A RISK OF SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WINTER STORM BEGINNING TO
AFFECT THE CWA ATTM. MODELS HAVE DONE WELL IN TIMING ONSET OF PRECIP
AND AREAL COVERAGE. INITIAL SURGE OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP IS MOVING
ACROSS CWA WITH RADAR INDICATING SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH
RETURNS >25DBZ FROM EASTERN HUMBOLDT THROUGH NORTHERN
EUREKA...NORTHERN LANDER AND WESTERN ELKO COUNTIES. AREAS MATCHING
UP WELL SO FAR WITH WARNED COUNTIES. IR IMAGERY INDICATING COOLING
CLOUD TOPS OVER MUCH OF CWA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD H3 DIV/H7 CONV COUPLET OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH OOZ TUE. AFTER 00Z...H3 JET BEGINS TO PULL AWAY WHILE
H7 SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ALSO WEAKEN. PWAT REMAINS IN
.3 TO .5 INCH RANGE. 06Z ETA SHOWS 24 HOUR QPF AMOUNTS FROM 06Z MON
TO 06Z TUE MAX RANGING FROM .9 INCHES IN HUMBOLDT COUNTY TO 1.3 INCH
BULLSEYE IN NORTHERN ELKO. WINDS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE ACROSS CWA THIS
MORNING WITH WMC REPORTING HIGHEST WINDS NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED.
EXPECT WINDS ACROSS CWA TO PICK UP TODAY AS PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF SFC LOW. BOTTOM LINE IS NO CHANGE TO
ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. SFC LOW SPLITS AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEVADA ON TUESDAY WITH DIMINISHING SNOW THREAT.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ANYWAYS WITH
NEXT LOW OUT NEAR 50N 137W. PRETTY MUCH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER
NEVADA. SOME WEAK VORT MAXES TRAVERSING THROUGH CENTRAL OREGON AND
IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SHOULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. S/WV FROM THE PACIFIC LOW STARTS MOVING
INTO THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. FROPA SHOULD
BE LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL DURING THAT TIME. WITH
CONTINUED FLAT ZONAL FLOW...WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH REST
OF EXTENDED AS MULTIPLE WEAK VORT MAXES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. WILL KEEP TEMPS COLDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS MODELS
KEEP COLD AIR SETTLED OVER OUR AREA.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING NVZ030 TODAY
WINTER STORM WARNING NVZ031...NVZ32...NVZ36 TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNING NVZ034 TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES FOR NVZ033...NVZ035...AND NVZ037
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&

SAVADEL/CLAYCOMB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
411 PM PST SUN DEC 28 2003

CORRECTED FOR WORDING

NVZ013-030>037-291500-
EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY-HUMBOLDT COUNTY-NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY-
NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-
RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE-
SOUTHERN LANDER AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES-
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
411 PM PST SUN DEC 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INLAND MONDAY AND BRING MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA BY MORNING AND MOVE
INTO FAR EASTERN NEVADA AND CENTRAL NEVADA LATER ON MONDAY. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTIES...
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY AND
THE RUBY MOUNTAINS AND EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
WHITE PINE COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA
COUNTY.

PLEASE REFER TO WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...WWUS45 KLKN...
RNOWSWLKN...FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEVADA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR EXTREME EASTERN ELKO COUNTY AND EAST
CENTRAL NEVADA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO WINTER WEATHER
MESSAGE...WWUS45 KLKN...RNOWSWLKN...FOR DETAILS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING
TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SMITH/SETTJE/SEDLOCK