Heavy Snow in Georgia, December 18 to 19, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EST THU DEC 18 2003

.DISCUSSION...
CLIPPER-LIKE SHORT WAVE...SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY POISED TO
CROSS WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...WILL KICK OFF WINTER WEATHER
EVENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC. IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE...
ALL THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO PLACE FOR A LONG
DURATION SNOW EVENT ALONG THE TN BORDER...WESTERN SLOPES...AND HIGH
ELEVATIONS. WINTER STORM WARNING ALREADY IN PLACE THRU FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THIS LOOKS RIGHT ON TRACK BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH TONIGHT SHOULD HOLD THE GREATEST SNOW POTENTIAL...
AND FROM FRIDAY MORNING ONWARD...A LONG SLOW TAPERING OFF.

SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER VORT TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE NW FLOW
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH
OR TWO ACROSS THE SRN MOUNTAINS OF NC AND INTO THE NRN FOOTHILLS...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE PKWY...SO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS PLANNED THERE. EXPECT TO SEE A PASSING SNOW SHOWER OR
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE...BUT THIS WILL NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE ZFP.

SOME PRECIP ALWAYS SEEMS TO SPILL OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT IN THESE SITUATIONS.
WILL GO WITH MAV GUIDANCE AND MENTION A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 CORRIDOR.

DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT ABATE UNTIL SATURDAY.  EVENT SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE SMOKIES BY LATE FRIDAY BUT NO ADJUSTMENT
WILL BE MADE TO WARNING AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOW MOISTURE
PULLING OUT BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE 850 THERMAL TROF HAS NOT
CROSSED THE MOUNTAINS...RAISING SOME MINOR CONCERN THAT THE EVENT
WILL DRAG INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS TOO WILL NOT BE ADDRESSED
AT THIS TIME.

FOLLOWED FAIRLY CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE ON TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN CHANGE IS TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN TIER FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW TO FALL. HAVE DROPPED SUNDAY MORNING LOW BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES WITH CENTER OF HIGH PROGGED RIGHT SMACK OVER TOP OF WESTERN
CAROLINAS.

FOR THE EXTENDED...JUST MINOR CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY/S THINKING
WHICH FEATURES AN INCREASE IN RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MONDAY OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT DID EXPAND PCPN CHANCES ACRS ALL
OF CWFA FOR TUESDAY BASED ON STRONG SLUG OF OMEGA PROGGED OUT AHEAD
OF APRCHG DEEP L/WV TROUGH. HAVE KEPT P-TYPE ALL LIQUID FOR
NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A POSSIBLE FZRA ONSET
ACRS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

TIMING CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSAGE OF ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STILL APPARENT FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT IS NOW GENERALLY PROGGED TO BE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH COLLABORATE EFFORTS
YIELDING A DECREASE IN POPS...MAINLY ACRS SC/GA. A WRAP-AROUND/NW
FLOW SNOW POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN INTO DAY 7 ACRS THE NC MTNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GSP 31 41 26 43 / 20 10 10 10
AND 32 42 26 45 / 10 10 10 10
CLT 31 41 26 42 / 10 10 10 10
HKY 29 36 25 40 / 30 30 10 10
AVL 27 33 23 34 / 60 40 10 10
&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE
       CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS
       AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SC...NONE.
&&

MOORE/55

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
505 AM EST THU DEC 18 2003

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-181205-
ABBEVILLE SC-ALEXANDER NC-ANDERSON SC-AVERY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-BURKE NC-
CABARRUS NC-CALDWELL NC-CATAWBA NC-CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER SC-
CLEVELAND NC-DAVIE NC-ELBERT GA-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON NC-GRAHAM NC-
GREATER GREENVILLE SC-GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS SC-GREENWOOD SC-HABERSHAM GA-HART GA-HAYWOOD NC-
HENDERSON NC-IREDELL NC-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MACON NC-MADISON NC-
MCDOWELL NC-MECKLENBURG NC-MITCHELL NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-PICKENS MOUNTAINS SC-POLK NC-RABUN GA-ROWAN NC-
RUTHERFORD NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG SC-STEPHENS GA-
SWAIN NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-UNION SC-UNION NC-YANCEY NC-YORK SC-
500 AM EST WED DEC 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING  FOR THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THAT BORDER TENNESSEE. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.