Hail in Florida, March 16, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
248 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

CURRENTLY...LARGE AREA OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN GULF MOVES
EAST.  WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL EVIDENT AS WINDS OVER NORTHERN
HALF OF AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WHILE SOUTHERN HALF AWAY FROM
THE COAST IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS PUSHING
INLAND...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE A FEW STORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER INLAND
AREAS.

SHORT TERM (TON-WED)...SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS GULF
WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.  MODELS NOW
GOING GUNGHO ON POPS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH 60 TO 70 PERCENT
EVERYWHERE.  THIS LOOKS MORE PROMISING THAN SATURDAYS NON-EVENT SINCE
THERE IS ALREADY A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.  SHORTWAVE MOVES ON BY LATE
MONDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL U.S.  SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY THESE DAYS WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...
FOR THURS...FCST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...AND A STRONG UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MS RVR
VALLEY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. BY FRI...THE STRONG UPPER TROF THAT WAS NW OF
THE FA LIFTS NE AND WEAKENS AS IT DRAGS THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE BAND SOUTHWARD. HAVE GONE SCT POPS FRI...BEGINNING OVER
THE N FA EARLY...THEN ALL AREAS BY AFTN. LOOKING AT THE EXTENSION OF
THE GFS ON THE WEB...STILL SHOWS THE TREND OF CLEARING AND COOLER
FOR SAT AND SUN. COULD BE SMALL CHC POPS SAT OVER THE S FA EARLY...
BUT THEN NO PRECIP EXPECTED SUN. TEMPS COOLING SUN...BUT STILL
LIKELY ABOVE NORM.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH OVERNIGHT AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS.  WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING
MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST U.S.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OUT IN CENTRAL U.S.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV TB 065/080 063/085 7711
TPA TB 069/079 069/083 7711
GIF TB 068/081 068/087 7711
SRQ TB 068/079 069/083 7711
FMY TB 068/083 069/087 7711

THANKS FOR THE COORDINATION MLB.

.TBW...NONE.

PRC/RFM

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161630-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SEABREEZES AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OR
POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

A WEAK SURFACE DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM MONDAY AND ENDING BY EARLY TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAYS AFTERNOONS
BEFORE BECOMING SCATTERED FRIDAY WHEN A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE
REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

RKR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
1242 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0537 PM    CYPRESS GARDENS           FL   .75 INCH HAIL
03/16/03   POLK                           REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

JTD