Hail and Damaging Wind in Florida, July 27, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
100 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2003

CURRENT...SATELLITE SHOWED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS GETTING A LATE
START BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED EAST OF WINTER HAVEN.
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WAS HUGGING THE COAST. WATER VAPOR SHOWED TUTT
LOW CONTINUES TO PLUG ALONG THRU THE CARRIBEAN WITH KTBW FORECAST
AREA IN NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED MICROBURST WINDS DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT.

SHORT TERM (TDY THRU TUE)...TUTT LOW MOVES OVER CUBA TONIGHT THEN
ELONGATES INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF BY TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRES
RIDGE SINKS INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS. THIS MEANS ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FLOATING INLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS. WILL KEEP 40% POPS IN FOR
MONDAY AND 50% TUES AS INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR FROM TUTT LOW BECOMES
LESS.

EXTENDED (WED THRU SUN)...THE SURFACE RIDGE IN SOUTH FL WED LIFTS
BACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CWFA THU AND THE CENTRAL CWFA FOR
FRI-SUN. SCATTERED POPS MAINLY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THE
RULE...HOWEVER HIGHEST POPS SHIFT FROM INLAND COAST AS RIDGE AXIS
EASES NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOW-MID
70S OVER NIGHT AND HIGHS NEAR-LOWER 90S.

MARINE...WINDS SHIFT BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST AND BACK THRU
THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD BE 10 KTS OR LESS WITH WAVES 2 FT OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 076/091 076/092 077 2425
FMY 075/092 075/092 075 2425
GIF 074/092 074/093 074 2425
SRQ 075/091 074/090 075 2425
BKV 072/091 071/092 072 2425

.TBW...NONE.

NOAH/RR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-271430-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
532 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO 90 OR ABOVE WILL ACT ON A MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE GULF AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZES...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN LOCATIONS WHERE
THE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN HAIL...HEAVY RAIN IN
EXCESS OF TWO INCHES...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER. EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH A FEW STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. THIS WILL
BRING LATE MORNING STORMS TO THE COAST AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE REMINDED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

ALSHEIMER

FLZ051-055-060-272300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
620 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2003

...STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES...

AT 617 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JUST EAST OF
BRANDON...SOUTHWARD TO NEAR SUN CITY CENTER...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTY AND NORTHERN SARASOTA COUNTY. THE
LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING WEST AROUND 10 MPH.

THROUGH 7 PM...IN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT VALRICO...BRANDON...BLOOMINGDALE...RIVERVIEW...SUN CITY
CENTER AND RUSKIN. ACROSS MANATEE COUNTY...THE STORMS WILL AFFECT
PARRISH... AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF BRADENTON. IN SARASOTA
COUNTY...THE STORMS WILL AFFECT SARASOTA AND VENICE.

THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

MORALES