Hail in Florida, July 18, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
141 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES ALREADY UNDERWAY...WITH 88D RETURNS SHOWING
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY LATEST SOUNDING DATA SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE...SO EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRE OFF
DUE TO BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH COOL (50H TEMP -9C) DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...
SOME STORMS COULD AGAIN BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH HAIL AND OR DAMAGING
WINDS...AND WILL ADD STRONG TSTM WORDING FOR THE EVENING HOURS IN
THE 5 PM ZONE PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM(SAT-SUN)...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. MODELS ARE FAIRLY
SIMILAR WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL USE A BLEND THIS FCST CYCLE. AS
THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MOISTURE PROFILES ARE PROGD TO REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PWS REMAINING IN THE 1.6 TO 1.8 RANGE. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE...HOWEVER WITH
A SWLY STEERING FLOW EXPECT TO SEE THE GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE OF
STORMS OVER INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY...AND WILL SHOW POPS 50% INTERIORS ZONES AND
SLIGHTLY LESS COASTAL. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES AGAIN CLOSE AND A BLEND
SHOULD SUFFICE IN MOST LOCATIONS. WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING MIN
TEMPS WILL BECOME QUITE BALMY ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 70
DEGREE READINGS LIKELY.

EXTENDED(MON-FRI)...LONG WAVE TROF ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF U.S.
BECOMES LARGER BY TUESDAY AND REMAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. MRF MODEL
TRIES TO TRANSITION LONG WAVE TROF TO ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY. SOLUTION
OF CLOSED COLD CORE LOW OVER LOUISIANA BY SATURDAY NOT LIKELY THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LONG WAVE TROF.

MARINE...DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPRESS
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND STRAITS DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS DEPICT A SUBTLE INCREASE IN WINDS
BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 070/091 071/090 2424
TPA 076/091 076/090 2423
SRQ 075/089 075/089 2423
GIF 075/094 075/093 3535
FMY 075/092 075/092 2423

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-181400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ABOUT 5 TO
10 MILES INLAND BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY INLAND...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG NEAR INTERSECTING SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
...AND MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
424 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0402 PM    MORRISTON                 FL   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/18/03   LEVY                           REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

DS

FLZ062-065-182115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
429 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT LEHIGH ACRES...
FORT MYERS SHORES AND TUCKERS CORNER...UNTIL 515 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 30 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER MAY OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

FLZ062-065-182230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
539 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH...WILL AFFECT SUNCOAST
ESTATES AND NORTH FORT MYERS...UNTIL 630 PM EDT. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40
MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF
CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS.
TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND MINOR
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOEPER

FLZ051-055-182210-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
547 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...WILL AFFECT SUN CITY
CENTER...WIMAUMA...RIVERVIEW AND BLOOMINGDALE...UNTIL 630 PM EDT.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW
SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LOEPER