Flood in Florida, August 11 to 31, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

CURRENTLY...STILL LOTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LINED UP FROM GULF
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA. STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS JUST
OFFSHORE SARASOTA COUNTY. LOOKS LIKE LINE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO
TAPER OVER THE GULF...AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST SOME
WEAKENING CROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS.

SHORT TERM (TUE-WED)...EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE THE
WEAKENING TREND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG COASTAL AREAS
EARLY BECOMING ISOLATED BY MIDNIGHT. GFS AND MESOETA STILL INSIST
TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A PRETTY STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE. TUESDAY MORNING...EXPECT SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
SOUTHERN FA TUESDAY BUT CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE NORTH. BY
EVENING...RIDGE AXIS SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE FA WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALL AREAS. FORECASTING SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS
BECOMES ALOT MORE DIFFICULT WHEN THE SFC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SO RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE SO
WILL PLAN ON 50 POPS ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY
SOME DRIER AIR COMES IN AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS WOULD CERTAINLY DELAY CONVECTION...AND PROBABLY LIMIT TO LOW
END SCT POPS. PLAN ON DROPPING FLOOD WATCH AT 5 PM.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...BUT WITH DRIER
AIR IN PLACE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW EXPECT HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY TO BE
A DEGREE OR SO ABOVE NORMAL.

EXTENDED(THU-MON)...LATEST GFS/ETA SUITES SIMILAR WITH MOVING A
TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE
GULF ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEEING THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE
LIKELY RANGE (70%) ON THURSDAY FOR MY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH
SCATTERED RANGE POPS (50%) NORTHERN AREAS AS MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UVM FIELDS WITH THE WAVE INCREASE ACROSS THE FA. ON
FRIDAY THE WAVE IS PROGD TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE WEST...WITH A WEAK
SELY WIND FLOW AND NEAR CLIMO-LEVEL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION EXPECTED.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY UPPER RIDGING OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY MOVES
WEST SOME AS WEAKER UPPER TROUGHINESS DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITH ATTENDANT SFC FRONT STALLING OUT OVER THE SERN STATES. THE
COMBINATION WITH WEAK SFC HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL FAVOR A RETURN TO A LOW LEVEL SW-WLY FLOW FOR THE FA WITH TIMING
OF CONVECTION AGAIN SHIFTING BACK TO MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL AREAS...AND AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR INTERIOR. TEMPERATURE TO
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS AND 2 FEET THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN 15
KNOTS AND SEAS OFFSHORE UP TO 4 FEET WED NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS WAVE PASSES ACROSS OR SOUTH OF THE FA. NOT INDICATING
CAUTION OR SCA WINDS AND SEAS AT THIS TIME...BUT THINGS COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

PRELIMINARY #S
TPA 076/090 075/091 3523
FMY 075/091 075/093 3523
GIF 074/091 074/092 2523
SRQ 075/090 074/091 3523
BKV 072/090 072/092 2523

.TBW...NONE.

JILLSON/MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-111400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
600 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT:

...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FROM PASCO AND POLK COUNTIES SOUTHWARD...

DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. COASTAL AREAS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL. MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR THE GULF COAST...
COULD RECEIVE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY...WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE
AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED...LOW LYING AREAS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
THIS MORNING ALONG THE COAST FROM LEVY COUNTY TO LEE COUNTY...THEN
SHIFT FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
DEADLY LIGHTING.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE ANY ONGOING
FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS...AND COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO APPROACH OR GO ABOVE BANK-FULL.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT
FORMATION THIS MORNING. ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE TIMING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TOWARD THE MORE NORMAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME
FRAME. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...PRIMARILY FOR
RAINFALL AND LOCAL OVERLAND AND RIVER FLOOD REPORTS.

RD