Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, July 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD.

TONIGHT...ONE MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OF SEVERE
WEATHER BEFORE A DRYING TREND TAKES SHAPE. 700 THETA-E AXIS SETS UP
OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER. 850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE AXIS AND AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BETWEEN 03Z-06Z WITH
THE EASTERN COLORADO ACTIVITY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA PER MM5/4KM BAMEX/HPC/GFS. THESE MOVE EAST WITHIN
THE 700 THETA-E AXIS AND ELEVATED AREA OF LIFT. LOW TEMPS AGAIN 60 TO
65 WEST...NEAR 70 EAST.

TUESDAY...SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH. 700
THETA-E AXIS SETS UP FROM NEAR KMCK SOUTH THROUGH KGLD TO NEAR
TRIBUNE. THERE IS SOME WEAK UPWARD MOTION FROM 850-700 AS ANOTHER
700/500 SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS FROM THE WEST. 700 TEMPS FORECAST TO
BE +15 TO +16C WHICH IS WITHIN THE THRESHOLDS OF GETTING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM GENERATION. 850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 00Z-03Z TIMEFRAME LENDING SUPPORT TO A FEW STORMS...
POSSIBLY SEVERE.

WEDNESDAY...COOL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING A RELIEF FROM
THE HEAT AND A CONTINUED DRY FORECAST. LATEST 850 GUIDANCE FROM THE
ETA/GFS SUPPORT READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S WEST TO NEAR 95 EAST. THIS
IS WELL COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THURSDAY...TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLICING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. 850 TEMPS WARM HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S WEST TO NEAR 100 EAST. HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
700 MOISTURE AND 850 THETA-E CONVERGENCE ARE PRETTY GOOD.

IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED PERIOD (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED A BIT. LATEST MRF NOW SUGGESTING THE
UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAYS RUN...
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH ON FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY THE
UPPER HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WHILE AT THE
SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE
HIGH. THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES A BIT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH WARMING 850
TEMPS. THIS TREND CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS AND DRY
WEATHER PER 700 TEMPS.

.GLD...NONE.

DDT

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER. ANOTHER
AREA OF CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EASTERN COLORADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN COLORADO IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ALSO ADDITIONAL STORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER
NEAR A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH...WHICH CAN MOVE FAR AHEAD
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES AND EFFECT LARGE AREAS. HOWEVER AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
IDALIA COLORADO TO NORTON KANSAS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE CONDITIONS TODAY. ALL
OUTSIDE BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED IN AREAS WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST...A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE AREA OF
CONCERN IS ALONG A LINE FROM TRIBUNE KANSAS TO GOODLAND KANSAS TO
MCCOOK NEBRASKA.

HEAT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SMITH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT (11 PM MDT)...

EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES IN THIS WATCH INCLUDE CHEYENNE...KIT
CARSON...AND YUMA.

NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE CHEYENNE...
DECATUR...GOVE...LOGAN...RAWLINS...SHERIDAN...SHERMAN...THOMAS...
AND WALLACE.

SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COUNTIES IN THE WATCH INCLUDE DUNDY...
HITCHCOCK...AND RED WILLOW.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AND MOVE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE NEBRASKA BORDER AND INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAVE A
SOMEWHAT BETTER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.

DLF