Damaging Wind in Colorado, July 11, 2003

WESTERN COLORADO & EASTERN UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
237 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2003

INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED NORTHWARD INTO THE 4-
CORNERS REGION...LIKELY A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.  THIS MOISTURE HELPING TO FUEL
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.

SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT): THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS FLATTENED SLIGHTLY...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE AREA.  ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS WL CONT
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING SHUTS THINGS DOWN FOR THE NIGHT.  EXPECT SIMILAR
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY...AS MOISTURE GETS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE
AND STARTS A DAILY CYCLE OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES.  ATMOSPHERE OVERALL IS STILL DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH...PER 12Z KGJT
SOUNDING...SO BULK OF ACTIVITY WL BE OF THE DRY VARIETY...PRODUCING
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE RAIN. DIURNAL CYCLE SUGGESTS STORMS WL
DISSIPATE EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.  ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
BEST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES MAY BACK OFF A DEGREE OR TWO ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITION
OF A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT DECREASE OF H7 TEMPS.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...SO EXPECT
SLIGHTLY BETTER RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT TO OFFER SOME HELP IN THE
BATTLE WITH THE CURRENT WILDFIRES ACROSS EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.  JDC

MID-TERM DISCUSSION (SUN-TUE):

WEAK WAVE SKIMS ACROSS THE NORTH SUN MAY BE ENOUGH IN COMBINATION
WITH SFC HEATING TO TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM...IF ENOUGH MID-
LEVEL RH PRESENT. LOOKS LIKE SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH END OF THE MTNS INTO THE SAN JUANS.

OTHERWISE...UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE
IN WRAPPING MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE HIGH CENTER THAN THE
ETA. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER ETA...BUT CURRENT WVAPOR PICS AND
SFC DEWPTS SHOWING MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH MEANS GFS NOT UNREASONABLE.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH. WEAK WAVES MAY BRUSH THE NORTH...FOR MINIMAL POPS
IN THE MTNS. FOR MOST AREAS...DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION (WED-FRI):

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA BUT GFS TENDS TO FLATTEN IT AS
IT WANTS TO BRING PAC TROUGH INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH. ECWMF ON THE
OTHER HAND MAINTAINS MORE AMPLITUDE IN FLOW DUE TO SLOWER EWD
PROGRESSION OF PAC TROUGH...WITH RIDGE CENTERED OVER CNTL ROCKIES
THU. RIDGE WILL HAVE BEEN IN PLACE FOR SOME TIME...SO FLATTENING MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE. EITHER WAY...DO NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO ERN UT/WRN CO. HOWEVER...GRADUAL MOISTENING
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ANTICIPATED AS RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS FARTHER N-NE.
MOISTURE OFTEN TENDS TO SNEAK UP RIDGE AXIS ESPECIALLY WHEN 700 MB
HIGH SETS UP OVER WRN TX/SRN PLAINS. WILL TREND POPS SLOWLY UPWARD...
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) FOR THE MOUNTAINS BY FRI. A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THU-FRI DUE TO BIT MORE CLOUDS.   JAD

.GJT...NONE.

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-121145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
530 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN COLORADO AND FOR
EASTERN UTAH

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LITTLE TO NO
RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
AND ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.