Winter Storm and Heavy Snow in California, November 8 to 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
130 PM PST SAT NOV 8 2003

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...AT 2030Z...THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 40N/129W. STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE LOW IS CARRYING A DEEP LAYER OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH LIGHT RAIN ALREADY FALLING IN THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE WESTERN TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.
A SERIES OF VORTICITIES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...
SO HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTH VALLEY AND THE KERN
MOUNTAINS TO LIKELY...RAISED THE DESERT POPS TO CHANCE...AND KEPT
CATEGORICAL FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

LATEST QPF FOR THE MOUNTAINS IS TRENDING CLOSE TO AN INCH FOR
YOSEMITE. THIS PLACES LIKELY SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6000 FEET VERY CLOSE
TO THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING
CRITERIA. DESPITE SOME RUN-TO-RUN AND INTER-MODEL DISCREPANCIES...
HAVE DECIDED TO ERR OR THE SIDE OF CAUTION...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. THUS...
WILL GO WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONE 96 /YOSEMITE-KINGS
CANYON/ ABOVE 6000 FEET...AND A SNOW ADVISORY FOR ZONE 97 /TULARE
COUNTY MOUNTAINS/ FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF AGAIN
IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND DROPS SOUTH...TO SOUTHWEST OF POINT
CONCEPTION BY 12Z TUESDAY. AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTH...THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SHOWERS BEHIND IT. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
MONDAY...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE DRY MONDAY
NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS NEAR THE
CREST. HOWEVER...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG TUESDAY...MARKING THE START OF THE TULE FOG SEASON.

.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UKMET/ECMWF MODELS
HAVE CONVERGED TO WHAT THE NOGAPS/GFS AND CANADIAN WERE HINTING AT
YESTERDAY. WITH THIS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS...FEEL THAT THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW SOLUTION WILL BE THE ONE
THAT VERIFIES BY MID WEEK. WITH THE CLOSED /CUTOFF/ LOW BECOMING THE
DOMINATE FEATURE BY MID WEEK...THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE TROF PASSAGE
WILL BE THE ONE PREFERRED. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATE TUESDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED/WEDNESDAY/. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
KERN COUNTY...CENTERED AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FOR THE DESERTS AND INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MODELS HAVE MOVED THE MAIN AREA OF DYNAMICS A
BIT FURTHER NORTH WHICH COULD BETTER SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIP OVER THE CWFA DURING THIS PERIOD. BY THURSDAY...MODELS LIFT
THE UPPER LOW MORE INTO ARIZONA WITH DOWNWARD MOTION DOMINATING THE
DISTRICT. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL STAY DRY AS MODELS
STILL SHOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY... THE
REGION RETURNS TO A MORE TROF PATTERN WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY
NEAR THE CWFA DURING THE EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY
PRECIP UNTIL SUNDAY/BEYOND THE EXTENDED/ TO BETTER AGREE WITH THE
CURRENT GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
                                   SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA ABOVE
                                   6000 FEET...FROM YOSEMITE TO
                                   KINGS CANYON...TONIGHT THROUGH
                                   SUNDAY.
                                ...SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE TULARE
                                   COUNTY MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6000
                                   FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

SANGER/MOLINA

CAZ089>099-091400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
530 AM PST SAT NOV 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. REFER TO
SFOWSWHNX/ WWUS46 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PATCHY DENSE NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD NIGHTS AND MORNINGS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.