High Wind in California, November 21, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
840 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2003

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...ONGOING CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE THE WINDS OVER THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. MID
EVENING KSFO-KLAS SURFACE GRADIENT HAS STRENGTHENED TO A VERY ROBUST
20.2 MB. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NOW DIVING
INTO THE CWFA...WITH A VERY STRONG 140 KNOT H25 JET ROUNDING THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. JAWBONE AND INDIAN WELLS CANYON RAWS...ALONG
WITH GOVERNMENT PEAK ARPS HAVE ALL REGISTERED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 50 MPH THIS EVENING...EASILY ACHIEVING WAD CRITERIA. EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD DISTRIBUTION OF THESE WINDS...OR STRONGER...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SUBSIDENT LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
PASSES OVER THE KERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS. RUC H7 PROGS SUGGEST
SOLID DVM DEVELOPING OVER THIS REGION BY 12Z. WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
CAREFULLY MONITORED BY THE MIDNIGHT CREW TO ENSURE THEY DO NOT LAPSE
INTO HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. BUT WITH THE KSFO-KLAS SURFACE
GRADIENT PROJECTED TO RELAX TO 9-10 MB BY 12Z AND STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...TENDENCY FOR INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DOWNWARD TRANSPORT SHOULD BE
AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET. ANOTHER POINT OF CONTENTION INVOLVES
STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
PLUMMETED OVER 20 DEGF IN THE LAST 24 HOURS IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF OUR VALLEY...WITH MUCH SMALLER DROPS THUS FAR AT THE SOUTH END.
VALLEY PROFILERS AND KHNX VWP SHOW STRONG NW FLOW IN AND JUST ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND REALLY DO NOT THINK DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR IN
THIS PATTERN OVERNIGHT. IN-HOUSE OBJECTIVE TEMPERATURE AIDS SUGGEST
LOWS WILL HOLD IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE VALLEY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST LIMITED TO AREAS EXTREMELY SHELTERED FROM
THE WIND...IF EVEN THERE. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL CERTAINLY BE A MUCH
DIFFERENT STORY AS THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETS UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THESE ASPECTS
COVERED VERY WELL AND WILL NOT UPDATE.

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXTENDED PROGS BRING A DEFORMATION BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH CENTRAL CA DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY TIME
FRAME. SUCCESSIVE RUNS THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND THE 18Z RUN PUSHES A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH
THE CWFA MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE OTHER MODELS BEING SLOWER
WITH IT/S SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION WILL BROADBRUSH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM/UKMET ALL INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
CENTRAL CA FROM OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP WILL TRANQUIL
WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WEDNESDAY. GFS INDICATING
ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON THANKSGIVING
DAY WHICH WILL SPREAD INCREASING CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL CA. A
DEFORMATION BAND THEN IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CWFA ON THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAY 7 ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTAIN...WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE CWFA EXCEPT IN THE KERN DESERTS. THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD INHIBIT TULE FOG FORMATION IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. DIURNAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE KERN
                                   COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
                                   THROUGH SATURDAY.
                                ...FROST ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
                                   AND SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
                                   VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
                                   800 AM.

&&

BURGER/DS

CAZ089>099-221300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
1000 PM PST FRI NOV 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY. REFER TO
AWIPS HEADER /SFONPWHNX/ OR WMO HEADER /WWUS76 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH A WIND ADVISORY
CONTINUING FOR THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS. REFER TO AWIPS
HEADER /SFONPWHNX/ OR WMO HEADER /WWUS76 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO
THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FROST. REFER TO AWIPS HEADER /SFONPWHNX/ OR
WMO HEADER /WWUS76 KHNX/ FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

WIDESPREAD FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY IN THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND KERN DESERTS MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.