Winter Storm and Heavy Rain in California, March 14 to 15, 2003

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
300 PM PST FRI MAR 14 2003

VISIBLE LOOP INDICATING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW NEAR 43N/134W TAKES AIM AT THE PAC
NW. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPREADING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
NORCAL AS KDAX AND KMUX 88D/S ARE INDICATING RAIN BANDS SPREADING
INTO THE NORTH BAY AREA AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. AS A 175+ KT
250 MB JET ZOOMS IN ON SOCAL LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR WILL END UP IN THE FAVORED LFQ OF THIS CYCLONICALLY
CURVED JET. WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL OMEGAS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...RAIN SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
LATER TONIGHT. HAVE FOLLOWED TO SLOWER ETA SOLUTION AS THE GFS
APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. 18Z MESO
EVEN STRONGER ON PROJECTED QPF/S AS OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN
THE SOUTHERN SIERRAS COULD EASILY PICK UP OVER THREE INCHES OF LIQUID
WATER EQUIVALENT WHICH TRANSLATES TO TWO TO THREE FEET OF NEW
SNOWFALL ABOVE THE PROJECTED SNOW LEVEL OF 6500 TO 7000 FEET. WILL
KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOING FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT
WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ONSET OF THE WARNING UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN
THE PRECIPITATION IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE. WILL ALSO EXTEND THE WARNING
INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE SLOWER ETA/NGM/MESO TIMING BEING
FAVORED. MODEL QPF/S OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH RANGE FROM LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON....WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF/S ACROSS THE
SIERRA FOOTHILLS AND KERN MOUNTAINS. DON/T EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING
FROM THIS EVENT ALTHOUGH NUISANCE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY THE MESO TO CROSS CENTRAL
CA BETWEEN 18Z SATURDAY AND 03Z SUNDAY...INCREASING SURFACE P-GRADS
AND NEAR FRONTAL THICKNESS PACKING WILL GENERATE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
BELIEVE THAT THE CWFA WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT
WITH THE SLOWER TIMING BEING FOLLOWED...BUT THE KERN MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WILL BE CLOSE ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAVE THE
DECISION ON A WIND ADVISORY UP TO LATER SHIFTS SO ANOTHER MODEL RUN
CAN BE LOOKED AT.

18Z MESO INDICATING ANTICIPATED CAPES OF NEAR 300 TO 600 J/KG AND
NEGATIVE LI/S FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH IS MUCH IN
LINE WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH PROJECTED SOUNDINGS INDICATING A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME...WILL MENTION SCATTERED
T-STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON TAPERING TO ISOLATED AFTER SUNDOWN.
WITH PROJECTED SOUNDINGS INDICATING MAX HAIL SIZES NEAR 2 INCHES
IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO OCCURS.

A COOL AND UNSTABLE POST FRONTAL ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING
ACROSS THE CWFA SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS A STRONG VORT MAX CROSSES OVER THE AREA.
WILL SLOWLY TAPER THE SHOWERS OFF ON MONDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
DECREASES. FOR TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSE TO THE MET SINCE THE ETA WAS
THE PREFERRED MODEL TODAY.

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT IN PROVIDING A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...PROVIDING FOR A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORCAL...BUT CURRENT AND CONSECUTIVE
MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ONLY AREAS WITH ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE THE EXTREME NORTHERN VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR SIERRA ZONES. THIS IMPULSE WILL QUICKLY RACE OFF TO
THE EAST WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER RIDGING NOSING INTO THE DISTRICT
THEREAFTER...LEAVING US WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR
JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

.HNX...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE
       SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO THE KERN COUNTY LINE.

DS/BURGER

CAZ089>099-151345-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
530 AM PST FRI MAR 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON AND TULARE MOUNTAINS,
FOR WINDY CONDITIONS AND HEAVY SNOW,  SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES ARE LIKELY ABOVE 6500 FEET WITH 2 FEET OR MORE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SIERRA SUMMIT.(WWUS46 KHNX). A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
WINDY ON SUNDAY IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WITH WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

MORSE