Wildfire in California, July 27, 2003

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
230 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2003

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE IN EAST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE MONDAY FOR
MORE CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AT TIMES DURING MAINLY THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

.DISCUSSION...CUMULUS HAD FORMED ALONG THE RIDGES...AND ISOLATED
TSTORMS OCCURRED OVER N BAJA. AN ISOLATED TSTORM IS STILL EXPECTED
OVER OUR MTNS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THOUGH MOISTURE HAS DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING WHICH HAD 1.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER. LOW CLOUDS WERE LINGERING ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY BEACHES...THOUGH CLEARING WAS
OCCURRING IN THE COASTAL WATERS...SO MORE BEACH AREAS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

THE GFS IS PREFFERED OVER THE ETA SINCE GFS HAS A BETTER HISTORY
WITH HANDLING EASTERLY WAVES. GFS SHOWS A STRONG VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD EASTERLY
WAVE...SO WE COULD GET DYNAMICALLY INDUCED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ANYWHERE
IN THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH
RH VALUES ABOVE 700 MB. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL CUT BACK ON THE
INSTABILITY...THOUGH ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN US...THE HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE MOSTLY FORMED DUE TO REMNANTS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
W...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATE 6-12 HOURS LATER. SO...IF
WE HAVE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS...TSTORMS COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT LATE MON. LOW PRESSURE WITH POSSIBLY ROTATING VORT MAXES
REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SOMETIME WED OR WED NIGHT...SO WE
COULD HAVE TSTORMS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WED
BEFORE THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT NW AGAIN. THEN...WE SHOULD RETURN TO
MORE OF A NORMAL WEAK MONSOONAL PATTERN WITH SE FLOW BRINGING A FEW
TSTORMS IN THE MTNS/UPPER DESERTS EACH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SIGN
THAT THE BIG WESTERN US UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST WHICH WOULD GIVE US
WEAKLY CYCLONIC SW FLOW AND END THE TSTORM CHANCES AND BRING A
DEEPENING EXPANDING MARINE LAYER.

.SAN...NONE.

MAXWELL

CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-281300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
600 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING IN ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS IN THE
AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.