Strong Wind in California, December 23, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
840 PM PST MON DEC 22 2003

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...IR LOOP
CONTINUING TO INDICATE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO CENTRAL CA AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 128W AND CONTINUING AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE SYSTEM
EASTWARD FASTER THAN IT/S COUNTERPARTS AND IS PREFERRED SINCE IT
HAS BEEN HANDLING THE TIMING OF OFFSHORE FEATURES BETTER. SAT PICS
INDICATE SOME BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTICED WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES
IN SOME LOCATIONS TO DROP BELOW CURRENTLY PROJECTED MINIMUMS. WILL
UPDATE GRIDS...SFT...AFM...PFM AND ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WITH
IR INDICATING MORE HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING IN FROM OFFSHORE EXPECT THE
BREAKS IN THE HIGH CLOUD COVER TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF SOME PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY BEFOREHAND
SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE UPDATE. THE INCOMING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT KEPT CENTRAL CA DRY TODAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH THE CWFA
ON TUESDAY. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
EVENT WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWFA BY TUE EVE.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW A FAST QUASI-ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE 00Z GFS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A STRONG PAC STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO
THE CWFA ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CROSS THE CWFA ON CHRISTMAS DAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS
NOT AS STRONG WITH QPF ACROSS OUR CWFA AS PREVIOUS RUNS...THIS
STILL WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR OUR AREA AS THE
LFQ OF A CYCLONIC 110KT 250MB JET MAX DROPS THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY
INDICATING DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...INCLUDING HEAVY SNOWFALL ABOVE 6000 FEET.
OUTLOOK SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SERIES OF VERY COLD AND WET PACIFIC STORMS WILL SWING ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE PERIOD. INDIVIDUAL TIMING OF STORMS WILL REMAIN
QUITE CHALLENGING...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR THE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS THE ONE WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
DRY WEATHER. GFS 00Z AND 12Z SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THIS IDEA...AS DO THE
ECM AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE NOGAPS KEEPS THE INITIAL TROUGH TO THE
WEST OF THE REGION FRIDAY...AND BASED ON TIMING DIFFICULTIES WILL
STILL OPT TO RETAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
THEN ACROSS ALL ZONES. QUASI ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY LOW UPPER HEIGHTS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INDIVIDUAL VORT CENTERS
RIDING THIS FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST SOME
LIGHT QPF AT SELECTED LOCALES...PARTICULARLY THE SIERRA HIGH COUNTRY.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS FOR THAT TIME. H7
TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORT SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 2500 FEET ACROSS THE NORTH AND ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET
HIGHER IN THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON EXACT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THIS
MAY PROVIDE FOR DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS ON FOOTHILL ROADS AND
THE KERN COUNTY PASSES.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DS/BURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
500 AM PST MON DEC 22 2003

CAZ089>095-098>099-231300-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-INDIAN WELLS VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN KERN COUNTY
DESERT-
500 AM PST MON DEC 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY...THE TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS...AND THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

CAZ096-097-231300-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS
500 AM PST MON DEC 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON...AND THE TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL INTO THE FOOTHILLS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.