Heavy Rain in California, August 24, 2003

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
230 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROF...WHICH IS JUST OFF SHORE...THIS AFTERNOON
AND PROVIDING FOR SOME SOUTHWEST DRIER FLOW. EVEN AS THE DISTRICT
REMAINS UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW...MONSOONAL MOISTURE KEEPS ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF KERN COUNTY. AS OF THIS
AFTERNOON...ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. WILL EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENTAL
PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...GFS SHOWING A
VORT MAX SWINGING THROUGH THE SIERRA CREST OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD
ALLOW FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...WILL ADD ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA THIS EVENING.

LATEST MODEL RUN OF THE ETA CONTINUES ITS TREND OF PROVIDING A
SURGE ON MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY. WHILE LI/S OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE IMPRESSIVE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CAPE REACHING THE
DISTRICT. THE MORE IMPRESSIVE VALUES REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF KERN
COUNTY. AGAIN...GOOD LI VALUES WERE OVER THE SIERRA AND COASTAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH LITTLE IF ANY GOOD VALUES OVER THE VALLEY ON
BOTH DAYS. YET...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ENTERS THE DISTRICT ALLOWING SOME WEAK CONVECTION TO POP.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL SEE MAINLY CHANCE VALUE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THOSE AREAS.

WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON MONDAY AS MAINLY HIGHER CLOUDS
BEGIN INVADING THE CWFA. WILL ONLY RISE VALUES BY A DEG-F OR TWO
AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HEATING ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT ANY FURTHER HEATING AS TEMP/S
TAKE A DOWNWARD TREND. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SOME RECOVERY IN TEMP/S
BEFORE A SECOND COOL DOWN STARTS IN THE EXTENDED.

ON WEDNESDAY...WILL EXPECT MORE LIMITED PRECIP AS THE FLOW RETURNS
BACK TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. YET...STILL UNSURE IF
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH ENTIRELY BY WEDNESDAY AS IGNACIO...MOVING UP
FROM MEXICO...WILL MAKE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PERIOD A BIT
HIGHER. HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW PRECIP TO STOP DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THU THRU SUN...MODEL INGEST
PROBLEMS PERSIST IN AWIPS WITH ONLY LIMITED INTERNET ACCESS TO LONG
RANGE SOLNS TODAY. BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS BUILD THE 500 MB
RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST THU AND PARK IT THERE THRU SAT AM.
LATEST NCEP DISCUSSION AND GFS SOLN FORECAST THE TROPICAL REMAINS OF
IGNACIO TO LURK AROUND OVER SE CA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...
WINDS ALOFT PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS CENTRAL CA THUS
KEEPING THE PATTERN DRY THROUGHOUT OUR CWA WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS FORECASTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE INTO NORTHERN CA SAT EVENING WITH A GOOD ONSHORE FLOW SETTING
UP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS OF A HEALTHY MARINE
PUSH INTO THE SJ VLY SAT NIGHT WITH CORRESPONDINGLY COOLER WEATHER
SUNDAY. WILL ADJUST TEMP GRIDS ACCORDINGLY FOR SUNDAY AND TRIM MAX
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN OUR MTNS AND FTHLS TOO.

.HNX...NONE.

MOLINA/DURFEE

CAZ089>099-251230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
530 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
INTERIOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR...THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY, THE FRESNO AND TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS, THE SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON AND THE
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.