Hail and Damaging Wind in Minnesota, August 24, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
330 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2003

FORECAST PROBLEM IS POSSIBLE STRONG CONVECTION OVER FAR S MN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY..S MN STILL RATHER CAPPED BUT SOME ELEVATED
ECHOES CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTHWEST MN. ETA MODEL AND LATEST RUC
WERE SHOWING BEST 850 MOIST CONV FAR S MN INTO N IA..ALTHOUGH LATEST
RUC A TOUCH FARTHER N. H8 HOT PROD STRETCHING OUT ALONG WSW-ENE
AXIS..WHICH NOT THE BEST FOR SVR BUT AS H8 WINDS INCR LATER TONIGHT
..THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN. THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED OVER NE IA LATER TONIGHT. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET TO
THE NORTH WILL HELP AS WELL. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN FOR MONDAY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW KIND OF WEAK..AND ANY CONVECTION FORMING TONIGHT WILL
ENHANCE A BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF MN. BEST WARM ADVECTION ZONE
WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN AND OFF INTO WISCONSIN..SO WILL PLACE
HIGHEST POPS THERE.

WEAK RIDGING MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL DRAG A SIG FRONT THROUGH AREA ON THURSDAY..LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY GIVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP. UKMET AND LAST
NIGHTS CANADIAN TAKE MOST OF SURFACE SYSTEM MORE ACROSS S MN.
ENSEMBLES BRING IN SOME NEG H8 TEMP ANOMS BY THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS
IN LO 70S LOOK GOOD AND POSSIBLE SOME UPPER 60S.

.MSP...NONE.

RICHARDSON

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED MONDAY OUTLOOK...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL SLIP INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL STALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S...ALONG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WILL ALLOW FOR QUITE AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN VICINITY OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS WEAK...THE EXTRA HEAT AND
HUMIDITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 4 PM...
AND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 60 OR 70 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT AREA WOULD
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ULM TO FARIBAULT LINE.

A SECOND CONCERN WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...FROM 10 PM TO SUNRISE...AGAIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
AN AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED TO GENERATE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. MECHANISMS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR CONTINUAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND GROWTH...AND MOVEMENT OVER THE SAME AREAS. WHILE A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT...THE MAIN
CONCERN LIES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN IN A ZONE FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WHILE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER RAINS ARE
UNCERTAIN...RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SHOULD BE AWARE
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. DECENT RAINS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE LAST 10 DAYS...AND A QUICK 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAY TWO...MONDAY

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA WILL MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH BOTH FRONTS IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS AND DESTABILIZES
FROM ANY STORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

BINAU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
0930 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0926 PM    10 SW FAIRMONT            MN   WIND DAMAGE
08/24/03   MARTIN                         POWER LINE DOWN AND ON
                                          FIRE IN EAST CHAIN.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.