Wildfire in California, August 23 to 24, 2003

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
1150 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MOISTURE AND THREAT OF
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A SHALLOW
MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

.DISCUSSION...THERE WERE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG...MAINLY IN THE
SAN INLAND VALLEYS THIS AM. THERE WERE ALSO A FEW MID LEVEL DEBRIS
CLOUDS IN SLY FLOW. THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD AN INVERSION BASED NEAR
1400 FT AND SHOWED THE MORE SLY WINDS THROUGH THE MID LEVELS.
WEAKENING ONSHORE GRADIENTS WITH ABOUT 5 MB SAN-IPL. THUNDERSTORMS
STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SRN SAN MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE THIS
MORNING. UPDATED ZONES TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE MOUNTAIN AND DESERTS
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR A FEW OTHER MINOR
CHANGES.

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. SOME
OF THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH W OF THE MOUNTAINS MON IN
A MORE ELY FLOW. THIS FLOW WEAKENS TUE BUT THERE WILL STILL BE LOTS
OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ENTIRE CWFA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A WEAK
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH MON WHICH COULD PROVIDE THE DYNAMICS FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING
SO MUCH CLOUD COVER THAT IT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A LITTLE WARMER
IN MOST AREAS W OF THE MOUNTAINS SAT WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. MAX
TEMPS ON MON AND TUE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS COVER. WILL GO COOLING...MOSTLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS...
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND
DISORGANIZED FOR JUST PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS.

LONGER RANGE PROGS INDICATE A GENERAL DRYING TREND WITH MORE SW WINDS
ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
WED AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASING CHANCE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EXTENDED PROGS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THE DETAILS FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SAN...NONE.

HWOSGX
CAZ042-043-048-050-055>058-060>062-241300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
600 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS.