Flash Flood in Arkansas, May 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MOSTLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA AT ISSUE TIME. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL BE MOSTLY EAST
OF THE CWA AT 12Z AND A LULL WILL LIKELY MOVE IN FOR MOST OF THE
DAY TODAY. COLD FRONT HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT AND DO NOT BELIEVE
IT WILL MOVE MUCH MORE. WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN IN MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT MAYBE THE NORTH AND INCREASED DEW POINTS FOR
TODAY IN MOST OF THE AREA. AIR MASS MAY BE CAPPED IN MOST AREAS
SO DO NOT SEE A BIG CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP
30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS MORNING FOR RESIDUAL RAIN LEFT OVER FROM
THE MCS...AND MINIMAL 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAXES
SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 80S AGAIN IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS BUT MAY BE HELD DOWN A LITTLE IN THE NORTH NEAR WHERE THE
FRONT WILL SET UP. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TONIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT IN THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF A MAJOR RAIN EVENT IN
THE NORTHWEST. WENT WITH LIKELY POPS AND HIGH QPFS FOR THE NORTH
FOR TONIGHT WITH LESSER POPS TO THE SOUTH. FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUT ENTIRE AREA INTO WARM
SECTOR. STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH
THAT TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
WARM FRONT AND BETTER DYNAMICS. AREA WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR MOST
OF REST OF THE WEEK AND THE AREA MAY BE CAPPED MOST OF THAT TIME.
WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED DUE TO THE
CONTINUING HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE. CHANCE OF RAIN MAY
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEW GFS
SPEEDS UP FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT WILL GO A LITTLE SLOWER.

.LZK...NONE

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DRY LINE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY NORTH A LINE FROM MENA...TO BATESVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM YELLVILLE TO CLARKSVILLE. STORM ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT.

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
1050 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0845 PM    PEEL                      AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   MARION                         TREES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY MEDIA.

0905 PM    MOUNTAIN HOME             AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   BAXTER                         TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0905 PM    MOUNTAIN HOME             AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   BAXTER                         WIND GUST OF 61 MPH
                                          MEASURED. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC.

0910 PM    MOUNTAIN HOME             AR   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   BAXTER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0910 PM    7 S MOUNTAIN HOME         AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   BAXTER                         WIND GUST OF 60 MPH
                                          ESTIMATED. REPORTED BY
                                          TRAINED SPOTTER.

0915 PM    7 S MOUNTAIN HOME         AR   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   BAXTER                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

0915 PM    5 NE MOUNTAIN HOME        AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   BAXTER                         TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.

0925 PM    3 E HENDERSON             AR   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   BAXTER                         TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.

46

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>024-030>033-037>044-052>054-062345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 277 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...BUT IT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 279 WHICH COVERS ALL OF ARKANSAS EXCEPT FOR
BENTON COUNTY.

TORNADO WATCH 279 WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

29

ARZ002>075-071000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

TORNADO WATCH #279 HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...BAXTER...BOONE...CARROLL...CRAWFORD...
FRANKLIN...IZARD...JOHNSON...LOGAN...MADISON...MARION...
NEWTON...POLK...POPE...SCOTT...SEARCY...
SEBASTIAN...SHARP...STONE...VAN BUREN AND WASHINGTON...

TORNADO WATCH #279 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...ARKANSAS...BRADLEY...
CALHOUN...CLARK...CLEBURNE...CLEVELAND...CONWAY...DALLAS...DESHA...
DREW...FAULKNER...GARLAND...GRANT...HOT SPRING...INDEPENDENCE...
JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LINCOLN...LONOKE...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...
OUACHITA...PERRY...PIKE...PRAIRIE...PULASKI...SALINE...WHITE...WOODRU
FF AND YELL COUNTIES UNTIL 5 AM CDT.

29