Flash Flooding in Arkansas, June 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2003

UPPER TROF REMAINS IN THE AREA SET UP JUST TO THE WEST WHERE IT WILL
ALLOW TROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH
WHERE THE MOST FLOODING PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
PATTERN INDICATED FOR TODAY. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
DAY FROM HEATING AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MORE RAIN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
AREA BUT THE SOUTH IS IN OVERRUNNING ZONE. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE VERY HIGH...PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DUE TO FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR TODAY. POPS WILL
BE LIKELY IN THIS AREA. LOWER POPS STILL LOOK GOOD TO THE NORTH.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND WILL KEEP POPS
IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH STILL COULD BE RIPE FOR
FLASH FLOODING BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT MONITOR SITUATION DURING
THE DAY TO SEE IF THE WATCH WOULD NEED EXTENDING. FOR WEDNESDAY...
ETA MOVES SHORT WAVE JUST ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT RAIN SHOULD
DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE GFS HOLD THE AXIS TO
THE WEST. UNTIL I SEE GOOD EVIDENCE THE SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE...WILL LEAN MORE WITH THE SLOWER GFS. WILL GO WITH 50
PERCENT POPS IN THE SOUTH FOR WEDNESDAY FOR NOW AND KEEP OTHER
POPS THE SAME. GFS STARTS TO MOVE THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
THURSDAY AS A STRONGER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF THIS...BUT WILL GO WITH DECREASING
TREND ON POPS AND SLOW WARMING TREND ON TEMPS. ONLY DID SOME
MINOR TWEAKING OF GRIDS BEYOND THURSDAY.

.LZK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY SOUTH  ZONES 52-53-62>69

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH OUT THE NIGHT. WINDS BOTH ON
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT SO THE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE
REMAIN IN PLACE AND WITH THE SLOW DRIFT OF THESE STORMS....HEAVY
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS POSSIBLE. THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL WASH OUT BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLATED
BRIEF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE VERY
SLOWLY OR SEVERAL STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA IN A PERIOD OF
SEVERAL HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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