Hail in Arkansas, June 11, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
337 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO REDEVELOP ALONG A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWFA. SHOWERS ARE MOVING OUT
OF THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW
NORTH AND EAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEMS. VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH THE UPPER LOW. ZONAL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND THE ETA MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM...TONIGHT...AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THE ETA TURNS ITS FOCUS TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TONIGHT. LI VALUES ARE -13 IN THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF
THE STATE INDICATING VERY UNSTABLE AIR. THE BEST CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SOUTH.

THE FRONT THAT IS STALLED IN MISSOURI WILL SINK SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS
BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF
ARKANSAS. MONDAY IT SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BUT THEN IT WILL STALL
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A SEASONABLE TRACK. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
70 WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

HRO   66  84  66  84 /  40  40  30  50
LIT   70  89  70  88 /  40  40  30  40
HOT   70  89  70  88 /  40  40  30  40
PBF   71  89  71  88 /  50  40  30  40

.LZK...NONE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
NEAR THE FRONT...WITH PRECIPITATION MAINLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST ACTIVE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO PRODUCE
RAINFALL MORE EFFICIENTLY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR IN
LESS THAN AN HOUR IN SOME CASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THIS PATTERN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE STALLED FRONT NEAR THE ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI
BORDER WILL MEANDER FOR COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH.
YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE PATTERN...
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPOTTY SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY...WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT...WITH SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS.

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