Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, June 11, 2003

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRECIP AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DECREASES AND DRY LINE MIXES EAST AND INTERACTS WITH OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE OBS HAS DRY
LINE EXTENDING FROM EAST OF FORT STOCKTON TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WITH STORMS ALREADY KICKING UP WEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH
INTENSITY OF STORMS HAVE DECREASED THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS. ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP LATER SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT COULD EASILY
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS DRY LINE CONTINUES TO EDGE
EAST POSSIBLY AS FAR AS THE WESTERN CWA. THIS EVENING SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN INCREASE IN LLJ ACTIVITY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVERTISED BY
THE LATEST MESO ETA CROSSING THE CWA EMBEDDED IN WEST WINDS ALOFT.

PERIODIC IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN ACTIVE
DRYLINE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO BREAK
DOWN... AVN BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE OF ACCOMPANYING PRECIP AND A RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES EMBEDDED THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED....CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE. MRF BEGINS
TO BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD SHUNT PRECIP TO OUR EAST.

ABI 071/094/071/095 3232
SJT 071/095/072/095 3222
JCT 072/094/074/094 3222

.SJT...NONE.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-122030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SONORA...TO
SAN ANGELO AND HASKELL. TO THE WEST OF THIS LINE...THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
HAS BECOME EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. THE DRYLINE WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS...AS IT PUSHES INTO THE OZONA...STERLING CITY AND
SWEETWATER LINE AREAS. A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE IN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE UPPER SUPPORT.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A
CONCERN AS HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED ONE INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BY THE WEEKEND...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING MORE THUNDERSTORMS. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

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