1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 2:30 PM MST, 5 hours earlier.
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE SEP 9 2003
.SYNOPSIS...FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT BUT TAPPER OF ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL MOVE OVER ARIZONA BY THURSDAY...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO
NORTHERN ARIZONA AND ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ARE SURE
TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE
FLOW...MOISTURE AND UPPER DYNAMIC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON
RIM...YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER
AREA TO WATCH WILL BE FAR NORTHEAST ARIZONA WHERE MOISTURE...DYNAMICS
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS FOR
HEAVY STORMS.
THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIR
MASS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS SHOWING DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
FALL-LIKE WEATHER. FOR MONDAY AND BEYOND MODELS ARE HINTING THAT
MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF STORMS COULD RETURN BUT FOR NOW JUST WENT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
MCCOLLUM
.NOTE...EFFECTIVE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1 2003...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION TABLE (BELOW) WILL NO LONGER BE
APPENDED TO THIS PRODUCT. THE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING
DAYTIME WEATHER...WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE RECENTLY ADOPTED TABULAR
STATE FORECAST (SFT). THE SFT PROVIDES THESE FORECASTS THROUGH 7
DAYS. THE WMO HEADER FOR THIS PRODUCT IS FPUS65 KPSR. THE PRODUCT
IDENTIFIER IS PHXSFTAZ. USING THE INTERNET...YOU CAN ACCESS THE SFT
DIRECTLY AT HTTP://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/CGI-BIN/GPRODUCT.PL?FLGPHXSFTAZ
.FGZ...FFA UNTIL 8 PM MST AZ ZONES 8/10/11/12/16/16/17/18/37/38/39/40.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON WED THU FRI TON WED THU FRI
FLAGSTAFF 051/066 042/069 039/072 070 060 020 000 000 000
WINSLOW 062/079 051/080 048/083 050 030 010 000 000 000
PRESCOTT 058/077 051/079 048/082 070 040 010 000 000 000
PAGE 068/082 062/083 059/086 040 020 000 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK 052/070 045/073 042/076 070 050 020 000 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 059/076 052/079 049/082 060 040 010 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD 066/088 059/090 056/093 060 050 020 000 000 000
GRAND CANYON 052/067 043/070 040/073 060 030 000 000 000 000
GREER 050/063 041/066 038/069 070 060 030 000 000 000
HEBER 054/071 045/074 042/077 070 050 020 000 000 000
JACOB LAKE 051/063 042/066 039/069 040 000 000 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M. 058/068 051/071 048/074 060 040 010 000 000 000
PAYSON 058/081 051/083 048/086 060 050 020 000 000 000
SEDONA 065/085 058/087 055/090 060 050 020 000 000 000
SELIGMAN 056/079 049/081 046/084 040 000 000 000 000 000
SHOW LOW 060/072 051/075 048/078 060 040 020 000 000 000
ST. JOHNS 058/075 047/076 044/079 050 040 010 000 000 000
WUPATKI N.M. 064/081 053/082 050/085 060 040 010 000 000 000AZZ004>018-037>040-100200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST TUE SEP 9 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL 8 PM MST... A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING. FREQUENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA...SOME RAIN WILL BE VERY HEAVY. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST ARIZONA IN THE AREA OF BLACK MESA...CHINLE VALLEY AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. SOME AREAS IN THE WATCH AREA WILL RECEIVE TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:30 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain cause flash flooding near the community of Polacca. Buses were trapped by the flood waters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5337137.