Flash Flooding and Hail in Texas, September 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
344 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
LIES FROM THE CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PANHANDLES AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND UPPER LEVEL JET MAX MOVES OVER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GET CARVED OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN IT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ON
THURSDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. UPPER LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD EVEN BE STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKE A FAIRLY GOOD BET AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS
AND IT COMBINES WITH GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

WILL LEAN WITH THE STRONGER ETA SOLUTION ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW THROUGH
FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WITH
THE STRONGER TROUGH IN MIND.

NEXT COLD FRONT IS DUE IN BY SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK ANOTHER 10 DEGREES ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP.

KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING TAKES OVER ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

A FEW NUMBERS TO PONDER:

AMARILLO    63 86 57 73 / 40 30 40 20
BEAVER      63 88 56 72 / 40 40 60 30
BOISE CITY  61 85 54 72 / 40 40 40 20
BORGER      65 87 58 74 / 40 40 60 20
BOYS RANCH  61 85 55 74 / 40 40 40 20
CANYON      63 85 56 73 / 40 30 40 20
CLARENDON   67 88 60 75 / 40 30 40 30
DALHART     60 84 55 72 / 40 40 40 20
GUYMON      62 87 55 72 / 40 40 60 20
HEREFORD    62 85 55 75 / 40 30 40 20
LIPSCOMB    66 89 58 72 / 40 30 60 30
PAMPA       66 87 58 74 / 40 30 50 30
SHAMROCK    68 88 59 76 / 40 30 40 30
WELLINGTON  68 89 60 77 / 40 30 40 30

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

GOEHRING

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-101100-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 4 PM.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL ALSO LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

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