Dust Storm in Arizona, July 15, 2003

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST TUE JUL 15 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINING IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM CLAUDETTE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.DISCUSSION...12Z KTUS SOUNDING SHOWED MORE MOISTURE...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS UP TO 1.13...AND A LESS STABLE PROFILE
WITH A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF MID LEVEL COOLING. NICE SHEAR IN THE 7K
TO 15K FT LEVEL AS WELL. DEBRIS CLOUD COMBINED WITH SOME DRYING IN
THE FAR EAST (KEPZ SOUNDING AROUND .81 PW) SLOWED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOME SPOTS. SURFACE DEWPTS IN FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO IN THE 30S AND 40S...BUT UPSTREAM FOR MOST OF OUR AREA
DOESNT VEER AROUND TO THE EAST UNTIL AROUND 12K TO 15K FT FOR RIGHT
NOW. LOWER LEVELS WILL START TO TREND MORE TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT 18HRS...WHICH WILL BE AN INITIALLY DRYISH FLOW WEDNESDAY. FOR
TODAY THOUGH...LOWER LEVELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECYCLE WHATS ALREADY
IN PLACE AS WELL AS SEE SOME WEAK REINFORCEMENT OFF THE LOWER
DESERTS. AN INCREASE TO SCATTERED COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
WEAK CONVERGENT AREA THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD SHIFT WEST THROUGH
COCHISE AND INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. STILL DRY ENOUGH IN THE LOWER 10K FT TO MAKE DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS AND OUTFLOWS THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

MODELS STEERING REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE IN OUR GENERAL DIRECTION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT BUMP IN MOISTURE WITH
THIS REGARDLESS OF THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE REMNANT CORE. FOCUS AND
MOISTURE INCREASE LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH POPS PUSHED
INTO THE HIGH SCATTERED RANGE (ULTIMATELY MAY SEE NUMEROUS
COVERAGE). STILL GOING SCATTERED FRIDAY...BUT DENSE DEBRIS CLOUD
FOLLOWED BY SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE REMNANT WAVE MAY LIMIT
OVERALL CONVECTION (BUT KEEP SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH THE MOISTURE)
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLIMATOLOGY AFTER THAT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
(SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS). M

.TWC...NONE.

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