Wildfire in Arizona, July 13 to 31, 2003

Name: Wildfire in Arizona, July 13 to 31, 2003
Start: 2003-07-13T12:43
End: 2003-07-31T18:00
Location: Arizona

July 13 to 31, 2003 · NWS FGZ · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

The Kinishba Fire was started by a lightning strike about 15 miles northeast of Cedar Creek in Gila County. The fire spread into Navajo County the next day.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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Wind
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

The Kinishba Fire was started by a lightning strike about 15 miles northeast of Cedar Creek in Gila County. The fire spread into Navajo County the next day. Fuels were extremely dry in ponderosa, pinyon/juniper, oak, chaparral, and short grass. Rates of spread were initially estimated at one mile per hour and driven by erratic winds. Fire spreads on 7/13, 7/14, and 7/15 were dominated by dry thunderstorm outflows. Increasing moisture and rain slowed fire behavior greatly by 7/20. Last of burnout operations was completed on 7/21...then thunderstorms dumped between 0.50 and 0.70 of an inch of rain (88D estimated) on the fire that evening. Final size was 24,300 acres.About 200 people were evacuated from the western portion of Whiteriver on 7/14 as a precautionary measure. They were allowed to return to their homes on 7/21.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 13, 9:00 AM MST, 3 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 9:00 AM MST, 3 hours 43 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST SUN JUL 13 2003

.SYNOPSIS...PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL PRODUCE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATING.

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IN
THE MID LEVELS HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD TO OVERHEAD WINSLOW. WHILE
MOST CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS...THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE HIGH MAY BRING A BIT
MORE MOISTURE INTO EASTERN AND CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS UP A TAD FROM YESTERDAY...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE A
BIT HIGHER...SO EXPECT AN AFTERNOON FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH SIMILAR AREAL COVERAGE. AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...LOOK FOR MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
COUNTY WARNING AREA TO INCREASE MARKEDLY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...NO UPDATE NEEDED.
HOWARD

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   MON     TUE        TDY TON   MON   TUE
FLAGSTAFF        090/053 090/053 086/054      020 020 030 020 020 020
WINSLOW          103/069 104/070 101/071      000 000 010 000 010 010
PRESCOTT         098/066 098/067 095/068      000 000 000 000 010 010
PAGE             105/075 105/076 103/077      000 000 000 000 010 010
WINDOW ROCK      094/058 093/059 089/060      000 000 000 000 020 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 100/068 099/069 095/070      000 000 000 000 010 010
COTTONWOOD       109/074 109/075 106/076      000 000 010 010 010 010
GRAND CANYON     092/052 092/052 088/053      000 000 010 000 020 020
GREER            086/049 086/049 082/050      020 010 030 020 020 020
HEBER            095/054 095/054 091/055      020 020 030 020 020 020
JACOB LAKE       088/053 088/053 084/054      000 000 010 000 020 020
NAVAJO N.M.      094/062 093/063 089/064      000 000 000 000 020 020
PAYSON           103/067 103/068 100/069      010 010 010 020 010 010
SEDONA           107/072 107/073 104/074      010 010 020 010 020 010
SELIGMAN         101/065 101/066 098/067      000 000 000 000 010 010
SHOW LOW         096/061 096/061 092/062      020 010 020 020 020 020
ST. JOHNS        097/064 098/065 095/066      000 000 020 000 020 010
WUPATKI N.M.     105/072 106/073 103/074      000 000 010 000 010 010

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 13 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-140200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN
YESTERDAY. STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES OF AS MUCH AS 1 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS. SOME STORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CONVECTION WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM AND
WHITES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MARKED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
RESULTING CONVECTION ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SHOULD START
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Gila

When: July 13, 12:43 PM MST to July 31, 6:00 PM MST
Where: Gila County, Cedar Creek
Reported by: PARK/FOREST SERVICE
Coordinates: 33.800, -110.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Wildfire, Navajo

When: July 14, 3:00 PM MST to July 31, 6:00 PM MST
Where: Navajo County, Ft Apache
Reported by: PARK/FOREST SERVICE
Coordinates: 35.400, -110.321 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, July 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5379482, 5379483.