Hail in Arkansas, July 13, 2003

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
312 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

JUST BEFORE 3 AM...THUNDERSTORMS STARTED DEVELOPING EASTWARD IN THE
WATCH AREA. WILL WAIT TILL THE LAST MINUTE BEFORE SENDING ZONES AND
ADJUSTING TO HOW THINGS LOOK. WITH WEAK BOUNDARY AND UPPER AIR SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...NOT HARD TO
JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR MUCH OF OK. ONLY QUESTION SEEMS TO BE IS HOW
WIDESPREAD ARE THE THUNDERSTORMS GOING TO BE. WILL KEEP 30 TO 40
POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH ONLY 20 PERCENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SECTION TONIGHT. THIS SEEMS THE MOST REALISTIC WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

LOOKS LIKE GUIDANCE HAS A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE TEMPS AND WILL
STICK PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM. DRY FORECAST AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
OUT.

TUL   91   72   95   74  / 40   10   10   10
FSM   91   72   91   72  / 30   20   10   10
MLC   92   73   95   73  / 30   10   10   10
BVO   89   72   95   74  / 40   10   10   10
FYV   87   70   90   71  / 30   20   10   10
BYV   86   71   90   71  / 30   20   10   10
MKO   92   73   95   74  / 30   10   10   10
MIO   86   72   94   74  / 30   10   10   10
F10   92   73   95   73  / 40   10   10   10
HHW   91   74   96   73  / 30   20   10   10

FORECAST ID= 15

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WHILE THE
AIRMASS OVER ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS REMAINS
UNSTABLE.  A LAYER OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE A CAP
AGAINST THUNDERSTORM FORMATION...HOWEVER A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MAY HELP OVERCOME THIS CAPPING LAYER LATER
TONIGHT.

HIGH INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOP WILL BE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITION WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOP TONIGHT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SUNDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ069-130930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
405 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 405 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BUNCH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STILWELL AND BUNCH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.