Winter Storm in Arizona, January 5 to 6, 2003

Name: Winter Storm in Arizona, January 5 to 6, 2003
Start: 2003-01-05T22:00
End: 2003-01-06T10:00
Location: Arizona

January 5 to 6, 2003 · NWS FGZ · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

A winter storm moved across northern Arizona late in the day and overnight with areas of heavy snow and strong wind. Some snowfall totals were: Tusayan Ranger Station 10 inches, Sunset Crater 10 inches, Doney Park 9 inches, Hart Prairie 8 inches, Grand Canyon South Rim 7 inches, Walnut Canyon 7 inches, Parks 6 inches, and Winona 6 inches.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 5, 9:30 PM MST, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 5, 9:30 PM MST, 30 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST SUN JAN 05 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS...
COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. PARTLY
CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...FCST REMAINS COMPLICATED. UPPER LOW WAS ALREADY
CLOSING OFF AND MOVING THRU THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS PASSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF NRN AZ
AND WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE N-NE AND ARE INCREASING IN STRENGTH.
ETA AND AVN WIND FCST BOTH INDICATE THAT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL
BE MET ACROSS THE WRN ZONES BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
ON MONDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WINDS WILL MAKE IT TO HIGH WIND
WARNING THRESHOLDS SO WILL CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND REPLACE IT
WITH A WIND ADVISORY.

SECOND ISSUE IS PCPN. THE AVN/ENSEMBLES/ETA ALL INDICATE TOTAL QPF
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH...WHILE THE MESOETA GRIDS SHOW
MORE. A LOT MORE. HAVE LOOKED AT THIS DISCREPANCY IN SOME DETAIL AND
HAVE NO COMPELLING REASON TO BELIEVE THE EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS SO WILL
GO WITH THE LESSER AMOUNTS OF THE OTHER MODELS. ANOTHER INTERESTING
COMPLICATION IS THAT SNOW LEVELS FALL VERY QUICKLY TONIGHT...AND
THEN RISE VERY QUICKLY TOMORROW SO THAT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SNOW COULD TURN BACK TO RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS.

DIVQ FIELDS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS
WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS EARLY IN THE SYSTEM OVER NRN AZ THEN QUICKLY
SHIFTING TO SRN AZ TOMORROW SO THAT THERE IS STRONG DOWNWARD FORCING
OVER NRN AZ. LAPSE RATES WILL IMPROVE AS THE COLD CORE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND THERE IS A STRONG OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT. IN ADDITION...
MICROPHYSICS ARE GOOD FOR SNOW PRODUCTION. CURRENT FCST CALLS FOR A
FEW INCHES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND BELIEVE THAT THESE AMOUNTS ARE
REASONABLE SO WILL MAKE NO CHANGES ATTM. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS IN
ERN AZ HAVE A CHANCE OF PCPN...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ON
EAST-FACING SLOPES WHERE THE OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL COME INTO
PLAY.

FGZ...WIND ADVISORY MIDNIGHT THRU 6 PM MONDAY ZONE 4/6/7/8/15/37/38

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON MON   TUE     WED        TON MON   TUE     WED
FLAGSTAFF        027/038 027/042 025/044      060 060 030 010 010 010
WINSLOW          028/045 026/043 023/045      030 020 020 000 000 000
PRESCOTT         032/052 033/056 030/058      030 030 020 010 010 010
PAGE             034/049 033/047 030/049      060 050 020 000 000 000
WINDOW ROCK      025/042 020/044 017/046      040 030 010 000 000 000
CANYON DE CHELLY 032/044 027/046 024/048      040 020 010 000 000 000
COTTONWOOD       038/060 039/064 036/066      030 030 020 010 010 010
GRAND CANYON     029/040 029/044 027/046      060 060 030 000 000 000
GREER            026/039 026/043 024/045      050 040 020 010 010 010
HEBER            028/045 028/049 026/051      050 040 020 010 010 010
JACOB LAKE       028/036 028/040 026/042      060 060 030 000 000 000
NAVAJO N.M.      032/039 027/041 024/043      050 040 010 000 000 000
PAYSON           034/054 035/058 032/060      040 040 020 010 010 010
SEDONA           039/057 040/061 037/063      040 040 020 010 010 010
SELIGMAN         026/052 027/056 024/058      020 020 020 010 010 010
SHOW LOW         032/044 032/048 030/050      040 040 020 010 010 010
ST. JOHNS        027/046 025/044 022/046      030 020 020 000 000 000
WUPATKI N.M.     033/047 031/045 028/047      040 030 020 000 000 000

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 5, 6:30 AM MST, 15 hours 30 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-060200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
630 AM MST SUN JAN 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM EASTWARD
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. SEE
THE HIGH WIND WATCH BULLETIN AT PHXNPWFGZ FOR DETAILS. AT THIS TIME
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Storm, Grand Canyon Country

When: January 5, 10:00 PM MST to January 6, 10:00 AM MST
Where: Grand Canyon Country forecast zone
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Storm, Coconino Plateau

When: January 5, 10:00 PM MST to January 6, 10:00 AM MST
Where: Coconino Plateau forecast zone
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Winter Storm, Western Mogollon Rim

When: January 5, 10:00 PM MST
Where: Western Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Winter Storm: A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, January 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5338235, 5338236, 5338237.