Arizona, 2003Flash Flood in Arizona, February 27, 2003
February 27, 2003 · NWS FGZ · 1 event in 1 county or zone
1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 3:30 AM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 3:30 AM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST THU FEB 27 2003
.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE 5000 FEET. THE RAIN AND SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO
STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT BY LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WELL. INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY FOR FOR ZONES 8, 15 16, 17 AND 18 INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH ANOTHER
PRONOUNCE AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE FOR SATURDAY. MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE AVAILABLE...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH SATURDAYS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
TC
FGZ...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR ZNS 4...6>8...15>18...38.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON FRI SAT TDY TON FRI SAT
FLAGSTAFF 032/019 034/018 036/019 100 080 040 020 050 050
WINSLOW 046/027 047/025 048/027 050 060 020 010 020 020
PRESCOTT 038/026 043/027 046/028 090 060 030 010 050 040
PAGE 047/034 048/033 046/033 090 060 040 030 040 040
WINDOW ROCK 035/024 037/021 037/018 070 080 040 030 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 040/031 042/028 042/025 060 070 030 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD 048/033 053/034 056/035 070 040 020 010 040 030
GRAND CANYON 035/021 037/020 039/021 100 070 040 020 050 050
GREER 032/018 034/017 036/018 090 100 030 020 040 040
HEBER 039/021 041/020 043/021 090 090 030 010 030 030
JACOB LAKE 029/019 031/018 033/019 100 060 040 020 050 050
NAVAJO N.M. 032/029 034/026 034/023 070 070 040 020 020 020
PAYSON 041/027 046/028 049/029 080 070 030 010 050 040
SEDONA 044/033 049/034 052/035 090 070 020 010 040 030
SELIGMAN 039/020 044/021 047/022 070 030 020 010 030 030
SHOW LOW 041/026 043/025 045/026 080 080 030 020 040 040
ST. JOHNS 046/025 047/023 048/025 070 070 020 010 020 020
WUPATKI N.M. 048/031 049/029 050/031 050 040 020 010 020 020Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 26, 7:00 AM MST, 23 hours before
AZZ004>018-037>040-270200-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST WED FEB 26 2003
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.
.DAY ONE...TODAY
A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. AS A
RESULT...A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY ALSO CONTINUES THIS MORNING FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF...THE MOGOLLON RIM ALONG THE OAK CREEK
AND SYCAMORE CANYONS AS WELL AS THE COCONINO PLATEAU AND THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TODAYS STORM...SEE THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WARNING AND SNOW ADVISORY (PRODUCT ID PHXWSWFGZ) ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WET...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN
ARIZONA...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...
THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
Flash Flood, Gila
- When
- February 27, 6:00 AM MST to 11:00 PM MST
- Where
- Gila County, Payson
- Reported by
- GOVT OFFICIAL
- Coordinates
- 33.800, -110.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Snowmelt and runoff from rain resulted in considerable flows in the Tonto Creek, between Payson and Roosevelt Lake. Four roads, which cross the Tonto Creek, were closed by Gila County Public Works. The Tonto Basin area was affected the most by the flood. About 300 people in several subdivisions along the east side of Tonto Creek were isolated. Secondary Forest Service roads were inaccessible due to mud. Gila County Emergency Services assisted the Sheriff's Department and the Public Works Department in ferrying medical supplies and basic food staples across Tonto Creek.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Flash Flooding in South Carolina, February 27, 2003$40,000 · 2 events
- Winter Weather in North Carolina, February 27, 200318 events
- Winter Storm in North Carolina, February 27, 200312 events
- Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in New Jersey, February 27 to 28, 200312 events
- Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in Maryland, February 27 to 28, 20035 events
- Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in Delaware, February 27 to 28, 20034 events
- Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, February 27 to 28, 20034 events
- Heavy Snow in Arizona, February 27 to 28, 20033 events
- Heavy Snow in Colorado, February 27 to 28, 20033 events
- Ice Storm in North Carolina, February 27, 20032 events
- Hail and Damaging Wind in Arizona, February 27, 20031.5 in hail · 2 events
- Winter Storm in New Mexico, February 27 to 28, 20032 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5342925.