Heavy Snow in Arizona, February 27 to 28, 2003

Name: Heavy Snow in Arizona, February 27 to 28, 2003
Start: 2003-02-27T14:00
End: 2003-02-28T11:00
Location: Arizona

February 27 to 28, 2003 · NWS FGZ · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

The second storm in a week brought heavy snow to portions of central Arizona. The heaviest snow fell along the southern facing slopes of the Mogollon Rim.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

The second storm in a week brought heavy snow to portions of central Arizona. The heaviest snow fell along the southern facing slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Forest Lakes picked up 12.5 inches of snow in just 15 hours...for a total of 44 inches of new snow since February 24th. The town of Pine received 8 inches of new snow for a total of 24 inches in four days. Ten inches of new snow fell in Happy Jack in 12 hours for a total of 23 inches. Kachina Village received 6 inches of snow in just 3 hours (midnight to 3 AM). Tonto Village picked up 7 inches of new snow for a total of 20 inches. Hart Prairie received 11.5 inches of new snow. A 14-vehicle pileup, including an 8,000-gallon gasoline tanker and four tractor-trailers, closed westbound Interstate 40 in Flagstaff for five hours on the 27th. Only two minor injuries were reported in the pile-up. Traffic was backed up for two miles.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 27, 9:30 AM MST, 4 hours 30 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU FEB 27 2003

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ABOVE
5000 FEET. THE RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN CALIF AND
AZ TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING NORTHWARD WITH DWPTS GREATER THAN 40F
OVER LARGE PORTIONS OF SW AZ. LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY FORMING AND
SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING FOR A FEW HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY WITH HIGHER GUSTS RESULTING IN BLOWING SNOW.
CURRENTLY HAVE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION ZONES AND
NEED TO CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY OF UPGRADING THIS TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UA DATA FROM THIS MORNING IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE. KFGZ SOUNDING HAS A STRONG INVERSION NEAR 600 MB BUT
BELOW THIS LEVEL THERE IS LARGE INSTABILITY WITH BEST LI OF ABOUT
-2. KNKX SOUNDING SHOWS BETTER THAN 250 MB DEEP MOISTURE THAT CAN BE
TAPPED. AND THE KDRA SOUNDING IS SIMILAR TO THE KFGZ EXCEPT THAT THE
INVERSION IS REMOVED. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE DEEPER
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TODAY WITH TSSN A GOOD BET OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND TSRA OVER THE DESERTS.  DB

FGZ...SNOW ADVISORY TODAY FOR ZNS 004..006>008..015>018..038.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   FRI     SAT        TDY TON   FRI   SAT
FLAGSTAFF        032/019 034/018 036/019      090 060 030 020 050 050
WINSLOW          046/027 047/025 048/027      070 050 030 010 020 020
PRESCOTT         038/026 043/027 046/028      080 050 030 010 050 040
PAGE             047/034 048/033 046/033      090 060 040 030 040 040
WINDOW ROCK      035/024 037/021 037/018      060 060 040 030 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 040/031 042/028 042/025      050 050 030 020 020 020
COTTONWOOD       048/033 053/034 056/035      070 040 020 010 040 030
GRAND CANYON     035/021 037/020 039/021      090 060 030 020 050 050
GREER            032/018 034/017 036/018      080 060 030 020 040 040
HEBER            039/021 041/020 043/021      060 040 020 010 030 030
JACOB LAKE       029/019 031/018 033/019      090 060 030 020 050 050
NAVAJO N.M.      032/029 034/026 034/023      050 050 030 020 020 020
PAYSON           041/027 046/028 049/029      080 050 030 010 050 040
SEDONA           044/033 049/034 052/035      070 040 020 010 040 030
SELIGMAN         039/020 044/021 047/022      050 030 020 010 030 030
SHOW LOW         041/026 043/025 045/026      070 050 030 020 040 040
ST. JOHNS        046/025 047/023 048/025      070 050 030 010 020 020
WUPATKI N.M.     048/031 049/029 050/031      050 040 020 010 020 020

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 27, 7:00 AM MST, 7 hours before

AZZ004>018-037>040-280200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST THU FEB 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ANOTHER WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY. LOOK FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN 3500 TO
4500 FEET. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY ABOVE 5000 FEET FROM
THE KAIBAB AND COCONINO PLATEAUS...TO THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM
AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY. A SNOW ADVISORY IS ALSO IN
EFFECT ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECT TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON
SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES ON
MONDAY AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Western Mogollon Rim

When: February 27, 2:00 PM MST to February 28, 3:00 AM MST
Where: Western Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by: NWS EMPLOYEE(OFF DUTY)
Coordinates: 35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Eastern Mogollon Rim

When: February 27, 5:00 PM MST to February 28, 9:00 AM MST
Where: Eastern Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 35.620, -111.045 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy Snow, Northern Gila County

When: February 27, 6:00 PM MST to February 28, 11:00 AM MST
Where: Northern Gila County forecast zone
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 33.800, -110.812 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, February 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5343390, 5343389, 5343388.