1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 19, 9:15 AM MST, 3 hours earlier.
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE REMNANT CONVECTION OVER
FAR SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER
SOUTHERN AZ...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THAT
REGION. MORNING KFGZ SOUNDING HAS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER
ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE PROFILE. GULF SURGE CONTINUES TO ADD
MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ONCE AIRMASS HEATS UP...CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG
SHOULD MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY ...ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE CLOUD COVER. CURRENT CLOUD COVER OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL
LEAD TO A LATE START TO CONVECTION THERE...BUT NORTH OF THIS CLOUD
SHIELD...EXPECT ADEQUATE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO LEAD TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE RIM WITH DECREASING POPS TOWARD THE UTAH
BORDER FURTHER FROM THE DEEPER MOISTURE. PREC WATER VALUES OF AROUND
AN INCH ALONG WITH WEAK CLOUD LAYER WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME STORMS TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. WITH THESE CAPE VALUES...HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS INDICATE A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE HIGH THAT IS FORMING OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL HELP TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER
WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOP OVER THIS REGION OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD...SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF
IT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER CIRCULATION CENTER FURTHER SOUTH IN
MEXICO WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR SOUTH
AS WELL. SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING 36 HOURS. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND
ZONE PRODUCTS TO REFLECT CURRENT THINKING. STAUDENMAIER
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON WED THU TDY TON WED THU
FLAGSTAFF 079/053 077/051 077/053 050 030 040 030 040 030
WINSLOW 089/063 087/062 088/063 030 030 030 030 030 020
PRESCOTT 086/062 084/061 084/063 040 030 040 030 040 030
PAGE 098/071 094/068 093/071 020 020 020 020 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 084/053 083/052 081/051 040 030 040 030 040 020
CANYON DE CHELLY 090/061 089/060 087/059 030 030 030 020 030 020
COTTONWOOD 097/070 095/069 095/071 040 030 030 030 030 020
GRAND CANYON 084/051 082/051 080/054 030 030 030 030 030 020
GREER 074/050 072/048 072/050 050 040 050 040 050 030
HEBER 084/055 082/053 082/055 050 030 040 040 040 030
JACOB LAKE 077/053 075/051 075/053 030 020 030 030 030 020
NAVAJO N.M. 084/058 083/057 081/056 030 020 030 030 030 020
PAYSON 090/063 088/062 088/064 040 030 040 030 040 020
SEDONA 094/068 092/067 092/069 040 030 030 030 040 020
SELIGMAN 089/061 087/060 087/062 040 030 030 030 030 020
SHOW LOW 084/061 082/059 082/061 050 040 040 040 040 030
ST. JOHNS 089/060 088/059 089/060 040 030 040 030 040 020
WUPATKI N.M. 091/064 089/063 090/064 030 030 030 030 030 020AZZ004>018-037>040-200200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST TUE AUG 19 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AROUND PHOENIX AND WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LOCATIONS SOUTH WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. A CIRCULATION CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION AND ENHANCE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM MOVEMENT GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST. OVER NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...LIGHTER WINDS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:16 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Highway 89 north of Doney Park was closed due to water flowing across the roadway. The Highway Department had to clear debris with plows. Nearby, Sunset Crater National Monument received 1.58 inches of rain in two hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5374309.