High Wind in Alaska, October 6 to 7, 2003

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT SUN OCT 5 2003

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE...OCCLUSION IN GULF OF ALASKA MOVING ONSHORE
CURRENTLY AND WILL MOVE NORTH TO LIE FROM FAR WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
TO PRUDHOE BAY TO NORTH OF KAKTOVIK AT 00Z WED AS A TROF. LOW
MOVING NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN ALASKA EVENTUALLY AS 986 MB
LOWS...ONE IN NORTON SOUND AND ONE NEAR MCGRATH. ARCTIC FRONT
ROUGHLY ALONG 65N OVER INTERIOR THEN SOUTH OVER NULATO HILLS
TOWARD BETHEL...THIS FAR WESTERN PORTION WILL MIGRATE NORTHWEST
OVER THE SEWARD PEN LATE MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF OCCLUSION AND THEN
SLIDE BACK SOUTH OVER SEWARD PEN TUE AS OCCLUSION DISSIPATES.
EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT OF ARCTIC FRONT NORTH OVER INTERIOR...
OCCLUSION SHOULD JUST MOVE ALOFT OVER ARCTIC AIRMASS THERE DUE TO
MID LEVEL WINDS BEING SEMI-PARALLEL TO ARCTIC FRONT.

ALOFT...500 MB LOW WEST OF ST LAWRENCE AND SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF KODIAK ISLAND EVENTUALLY...WHILE
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND MOVES TO NORTON SOUND.
AS THESE LOWS SPIN AROUND OVER THE STATE ANOTHER GETS PULLED IN
FROM THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC...ALL THIS TO SAY THAT THE PATTERN WILL
TREND COOLER THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JETSTREAM RELOCATES TO A
ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDDLE PACIFIC.

MODELS...SIMILAR IN FIRST 24 HOURS. AVN KEEPING LOW TOO DEEP AS IT
DRIFTS NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR. ETA FORMING A LOW NEAR PRUDHOE BAY
00Z WED ALONG DISSIPATING OCCLUSION...WILL ALLOW FOR A TROF THERE
INSTEAD...WHICH NONETHELESS MEANS WE EXPECT THE WIND GRADIENT TO
RELAX OVER ERN ARCTIC BY THEN.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...NOT EXPECTING HIGH WIND
AT THIS TIME BUT CERTAINLY ADVISORY LEVEL LATER TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE EAST TUESDAY AS DISSIPATING
OCCLUSION/TROF MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME SNOW POTENTIAL MON NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS REMAINS OF OCCLUSION MOVE INTO AREA.

WESTERN ALASKA...BAND OF SHOWERS OVER OUTER WATERS OR ZONES 213
AND WRN 207 ASSOCIATED WITH OLD UPPER LOW...WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH. WITH NORTHWARD MOVING OCCLUSION
FROM GULF OF ALASKA...PRECIP MOVING NORTHWEST OVER AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...LINGERING OVER ZONES 213 AND WESTERN 207 INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIP SOMETIMES AS SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF ARCTIC FRONT
DURING NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT COULD BE ALL RAIN ZONES 210 AND 209
MON NIGHT AS SOME WARM AIR NUDGES NORTH OVER SEWARD PEN AND
KOTZEBUE SOUND FOR A BRIEF TIME.

CENTRAL/ERN INTERIOR...OCCLUSION BRINGING SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH OF ARCTIC FRONT EXPECT A
LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN...OR LIGHT SNOW DEPENDING ON TIME OF DAY...
BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY. MOST PRECIP OVER WITH BY MON NIGHT.
LIGHT-MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ALASKA RANGE RESUMING MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY THEN COLLAPSING AS TROF ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
WESTERN BERING LOW ROTATES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY 201 202 203 204.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 14 9B 10B. GALE 11A 11B.

JL OCT 03