High Wind in Alaska, October 21, 2003

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
245 AM ADT TUE OCT 21 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...THE STRONG LOW MOVING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IS
NEAR 51N/137W ATTM...IT WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG 140W THROUGH
TUESDAY. BUOY 46004 NEAR THE LOW CENTER RECORDED A PRESSURE OF
976 MB...BOTH THE MESOETA AND THE GFS WAS NOT THAT DEEP WITH THIS
LOW BUT LIKE THE TRACK OF THE GFS SO WILL GO WITH THAT MODEL AND
ADJUST FOR THE LOWER PRESSURE. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW DEW NORTH
ALONG 140W THROUGH THE DAY AND THEN BEGINS TO TURN WEST BY THE
EARLY EVENING.

AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE DAY...THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
PANHANDLE ATTM IS BEGINNING TO BLOW NEAR 35 MPH AND SHOULD BECOME
GUSTING TO 60 MPH BY DAY BREAK. IT WILL BE VERY WINDY ACROSS THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLE FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THESE WINDS
WILL BE NEAR 30 MPH SUSTAINED AND GUSTING TO NEAR 50 MPH OUT OF
INTERIOR PASSES AND THEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
ATTM THE WINDS NEAR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU ARE GUSTING TO 35 MPH AND
THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 60 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING AS
TAKU WIND CONDITIONS COULD BE MET DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THERE
WILL BE GALES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS MOST OF THE SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL NOT BE NEAR STORM FORCE.

RAIN HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE SOUTHERN THIRD AS PAKT HAS
REPORTED +RA AT 07Z. THESE HEAVY RAIN BANDS WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY 18Z.
THE RAIN WILL TAKE LONGER TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD AS THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA CLEAR OF RAIN THROUGH
00Z. ALSO THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN WILL NOT BE THAT HEAVY. ZONE
21 WILL REMAIN DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST.

.LONG RANGE...00Z MODEL RUNS DOING A FAIR JOB ON THE LOW OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAN
TOWARDS THE GFS TRACK FOR TONIGHT AND ON.  WILL NEED TO LOWER
MODEL PRESSURES SOME AS THEY ARE ABOUT 7 MB TO HIGH FROM THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THE WINDY CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY CONTINUE MOVING
ALONG THE OUTER COAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.  THE LOW WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA
WEDNESDAY THEN WILL BE FORCED OUT OF THE GULF BY THE RIDGE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING SYSTEM BY THURSDAY.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF SHIFTING THE THROUGH
AXIS TO THE WEST FROM 140W TO 160W. THIS WILL BRING THE DEVELOP A
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE FRONTAL
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS AS IF IT WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FRIDAY. THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO THE PACIFIC. THE MID/LONG RANGE MODELS
INDICATE TRAILING WAVES ON THE FRONT WHICH WILL RUNT ALONG THE
FRONT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE SLOW TO PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL BE FOR THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WINDS WARNING ZONES...27..28...29...25
      ...WIND ADVISORIES ZONES 21 23 26
MARINE...GALES ALL AREAS (AREA 2A DEVELOPING TUE NIGHT)

ABJ - BMB