Alaska, 2003

Flooding in Alaska, October 1 to 4, 2003

October 1 to 4, 2003 · NWS AFC · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A tropically connected storm over the southwest Gulf of Alaska produced a long wet southerly fetch into the south central region of Alaska. The resulting heavy rainfall ranged from around 15 inches on the Gulf of Alaska side of the Aleutian mountains to around 2-4 inches of rain on the leeward side of the mountains from October 1st through the 3rd.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$3.2 million
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

A tropically connected storm over the southwest Gulf of Alaska produced a long wet southerly fetch into the south central region of Alaska. The resulting heavy rainfall ranged from around 15 inches on the Gulf of Alaska side of the Aleutian mountains to around 2-4 inches of rain on the leeward side of the mountains from October 1st through the 3rd. The Iliamna river rose 20 feet from October 2 to the 3rd. The Johnson river rose 7feet over the same time period. This same storm resulted in heavy rain over Kodiak island for the first three days of October. The heavy rainfall resulted in the road to Chiniak slipping and in need of being diverted. All flooding in zone 125, Western Prince William Sound was minor without resulting in any damage.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 30, 8:00 PM AST, 9 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 8:00 PM AST, 9 hours before
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
900 PM ADT TUE SEP 30 2003

ANALYSIS...ANYONE SMELL THE PINEAPPLES? THERE IS A SOUTH JET AT 250
MB AIMED AT KODIAK ISLAND FROM HAWAII AT 00Z WITH CORE SPEED OF 150
KT. AN EQUALLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY IS FROM KAMCHATKA TO 32/160W ON
THE BACK SIDE OF A MAJOR UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 50/160W. THE SURFACE
LOW IS DOWN TO 972 MB 00Z WITH A SECONDARY CENTER NEAR PAJC 981 MB.
THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS ALONG 153W OR SO UNDER THE JET FOR LOTS OF RAIN
AND STRONG WINDS. THE TEMPERATURE AT 8 PM AT PALMER WAS 66F. THE WEST
COAST RIDGE HAS REARED ITS UGLY HEAD. MEANWHILE EX-TYPHOON KOPPU HAS
A NASTY LOOKING SATELLITE SIGNATURE NEAR 45/157E WHICH NCEP SEZ IS
960 MB. THE CIRRUS SHIELD FROM KOPPU IS ALMOST TO SHEMYA AS OF 03Z.
SEWARD HAS 0.82 INCHES RAIN 00-03Z AND KODIAK HAS 0.53 00-03Z. PAHG
RADAR SHOWS 50-55 DBZ ECHOES ALONG THE MOUNTAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF
COOK INLET. MCHUGH CREEK ON TURNAGAIN ARM HAS HAD A PEAK WIND OF 85
MPH FOR THE WINNER THIS EVENING.

FORECASTS...WE GOT A QUICK LOOK AT THE NEW ETA AND MESO ETA WHICH ARE
INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL AND SHOW BIG NUMBERS ON THE WINDS AND
RAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FOCUS OF THE RAIN BULLSEYE MOVES BACK
AND FORTH FROM KODIAK TO SEWARD AS PULSES ARRIVE IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WARM AIR AND LOTS OF RAIN IS GONNA LAST INTO FRIDAY BUT THE
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN GULF AS IT WEAKENS. GOTTA GO. TOO MANY WARNINGS.

.AFC...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 125. FLOOD ADVSRY 121 125 171.
         WIND ADVSRY 111 121 171 161 185 191 195.
MARINE...GALES 2B 3ABC 4 5A 12AB 13 15.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC SEP 03

Event by event

2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flood, Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns

When
October 1, 5:00 AM AST to October 4, 12:00 PM AST
Where
Wrn P.W. Snd & Kenai Mtns forecast zone
Reported by
DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

Flood, Kodiak Peninsula

When
October 2, 12:00 PM AST to October 3, 12:00 PM AST
Where
Kodiak Peninsula forecast zone
Property damage
$3.2 million
Reported by
EMERGENCY MANAGER

What these are

Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, October 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5374968, 5374969.