Alaska, 2003

Wildfire in Alaska, May 1, 2003

May 1, 2003 · NWS AJK · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

A near record dry April and below normal winter snowfall resulted in unusually high fire danger in the Northern Panhandle. Several small (under 10 acres) wildfires were reported from late April through mid May by the Tongass National Forest and the State of Alaska Division of Wildlife and Forestry.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.

A near record dry April and below normal winter snowfall resulted in unusually high fire danger in the Northern Panhandle. Several small (under 10 acres) wildfires were reported from late April through mid May by the Tongass National Forest and the State of Alaska Division of Wildlife and Forestry. On May 1, red flag warning conditions developed in our northern inner channel zones (Gustavus, Skagway and Juneau). Breezy northerly winds combined with relative humidities in the single digits (a very rare occurrence in the rain forest of Southeast Alaska). Local officials reported at least one small (under 2 acres) brush fire "took off" in the Juneau area on that Thursday.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 1:45 AM AST, 5 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 1, 1:45 AM AST, 5 hours 15 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
245 AM ADT THU MAY 1 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LATEST GOES IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTNSV
AREA OF LOW ST CLDS CVRG THE ERN GLFALSK AND ONSHR OVR THE ERN
GLF CST AND OUTER CST OF SE AK AS WELL AS DIXON ENTRANCE AND
THE INNER CHNLS OF SRN SE AK. ENHANCED BAND OF MAINLY MID LVL
CLDS ASSOC WITH SWD MOVG CDFNT EXTD FM NRN B.C. ACRS NRN SE AK
TO THE ERN GLF CST THIS BAND IS MOVG SLOLY TWD THE S.
A FEW SPRINKLES ASSOC WITH THIS BAND HAVE BEEN RPTD IN THE
PAHN AREA. ELSW NO PCPN IS BEING RPTD.

MODELS SHOW CDFNT OVR NRN SE AK EARLY THU MRNG CONTG
TO DRFT S TO LIE ACRS THE S HLF OF SE AK LATER THU MRNG
BEFORE MOVG S TO DIXON ENTRANCE AND EXTRM SRN SE AK
THU AFTN. MESOETA MODEL IS INDICATING SML AREA OF PCPN
MOVG S WITH THE FNT REACHING THE PAJN AREA EARLY THU MRNG
AND THEN MOVG ON TO THE PAPG/PAWG AREA LATER THU MRNG.
PCPN APPEARS MOST SUBSTANTIAL OVR SRN SE AK THU AFTN.

BEHIND THE FNT...A NEW SURGE OF HI PRES IS FCST TO BLD
FM THE AK INTR AND THE YUKON SWD TO THE ERN GLF CST AND
N HLF OF SE AK LATER THU MRNG. RMNDR OF CNTRL SE AK S OF
FREDERICK SOUND WL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BROAD
HI PRES RDG THU AFTN.

AS A RSLT LOW ST CLDS OVR THE ERN GLF CST AND CSTL SXNS OF
NRN AND CNTRL SE AK WL BE FORCED SWWD AWAY FM THE CST
LATER THU MRNG. PTCLDY SKIES THU AFTN. CLOUDS OVR INNER CHNLS
OF NRN AND CNTRL SE AK WL BE CLEARING FM THE N LATER THU
MRNG THRU THU AFTN.

WINDS INCRG TO SCA FOLLOWING FNTL PASSAGE OVR NRN AND CNTRL
SE AK DURG THU MRNG CONTG THU AFTN. WNDS ELSW IS FCST TO
RMN BLO SCA.

.LONG RANGE...UPPER TROF WILL DIG SE WITH MAIN VORT TRACKING JUST
EAST OF THE AREA. UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF JUST EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN ZONES OVER BC. SHOULD SEE GENERAL COLD ADVECTION AND
BRISK N/NE WINDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRI. LOOKS LIKE IT
SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH EXCEPTIONS
LIKELY TO BE OVER FAR NORTH ZONE 24...WHERE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FROM
THE YUKON SPILL INTO THAT AREA FRI WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROF...AND
THE SOUTH BREAKING OUT BY LATE THU EVENING.

UPPER LOW SHOULD STAY EAST OF SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH FRI NIGHT AT
LEAST. SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST LOW WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE
SOUTH AREA...WITH AVN ABOUT A DAY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
IMPORTANCE WOULD BE HOW FAST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM EAST WOULD
MOVE IN. ATTM...WILL BRING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SUN ALL AREAS...
AND LEAVE SAT PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH.

FOR MON-WED...MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW BIG UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE...
WITH UKMET SHOWING IT REMAINING MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE OTHERS.
THIS WILL IMPACT WHETHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE NE TOWARD THE AREA...
OR STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STICK
WITH CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE MON-WED PERIOD.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...SCA...
           AREA 1A1
           AREA 1A2
           AREA 1A3-STEPHENS PASSAGE-CHATHAM STRAIT-
                   FREDERICK SOUND

DED/RWT

Event by event

3 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Northern Lynn Canal

When
May 1, 7:00 AM AST to 6:00 PM AST
Where
Northern Lynn Canal County, Countywide
Reported by
PARK/FOREST SERVICE

Wildfire, Glacier Bay

When
May 1, 7:00 AM AST to 6:00 PM AST
Where
Glacier Bay County, Countywide
Reported by
PARK/FOREST SERVICE

Wildfire, Juneau Borough / Admiralty Is

When
May 1, 7:00 AM AST to 6:00 PM AST
Where
Juneau Borough / Admiralty Is County, Countywide
Reported by
PARK/FOREST SERVICE

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, May 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5358022, 5358023, 5360217.