High Wind in Alaska, December 18, 2003

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1045 AM AST THU DEC 18 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF GULF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WED. AN INTENSIFYING TROF IN THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MAY BUILD UP A RIDGE IN THE GULF BY NEXT THU.

.SHORT RANGE...STRONG WARM FRONT WORKING ITS WAY NORTH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE TODAY. LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THE AREA
WITH UPPER 40S SOUTH TO LOWER 30S NORTH. RAIN/SNOW BOUNDARY
HANGING AROUND A JUNEAU-HOONAH-ELFIN COVE LINE AND SHOULD BE
SHIFTING NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT OVER NORTHERN PANHANDLE WITH FULL SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN LYNN CANAL NOT OCCURRING UNTIL FRI.

GUSTY WINDS TODAY ALSO...MAINLY FROM THE EAST. STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. AS PARENT LOW MOVES
NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OVERNIGHT THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO
THE REST OF THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRI. WIND ADVISORIES COVER
MOST ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT BREAK OCCURRING IN PRECIP OVER SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING BETWEEN WARM FRONT AND TRAILING COLD FRONT STILL
OFFSHORE. HEAVIER PRECIP MOVING BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CONTINUES FRI AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE PARENT LOW MOVES
ONSHORE...BUT WINDS AND PRECIP DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON AS COOLER
AIRMASS MOVES OFF THE GULF AND INTO THE PANHANDLE.

.LONG RANGE...THE GULF WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MAINLAND AK BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO QUEEN
CHARLOTTE SOUND. 12Z AVN BUILDS A SURFACE HIGH WILL OVER THE
PAYA/NORTHERN PANHANDLE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS IT INLAND
SATURDAY WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE ALL SE AK AND PATCHY
FOG IN THE CHANNELS AND VALLEYS. HOWEVER..WILL GO WITH MESO ETA
THAT KEEPS SHOWERS GOING LONGER OVER ALL OF SE AK AND NO OBVIOUS
SURFACE HIGH INLAND UNTIL NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL BLEND INTO AVN WITH SUNDAY SYSTEM.

A 969 MB LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND
INTENSIFY TO 954 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON AND REMAIN STRONG AS IT
MOVES TO NEAR SEWARD BY MON. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN OFFSHORE FLOW
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER SE AK BY EARLY SUN AND BRING IN WARMER
AIR AND RAIN AND STRONG WINDS BY LATER SUN. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GULF WILL MOVE INTO SE AK EARLY MON MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENTS
OVER PAYA WILL REMAIN STRONG MON WHILE THEY WEAKEN OVER THE
REMAINDER OF SE AK WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MON NIGHT.

THEN A 958 MB LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF TUE MORNING WILL
WEAKEN TO 987 MB AS IT SLOWLY BOBS EAST TOWARD QUEEN CHARLOTTE
SOUND THROUGH NEXT THU. HOWEVER...MODELS SEEM TO MOVE THESE TYPES
OF LOWS AROUND BEFORE SETTLING ON EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL MAKE
LAND FALL. CURRENT MRF BRINGS OFFSHORE FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER WITH
PATCHY FOG TO SE AK CHRISTMAS DAY AS THAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORIES...ALL ZONES EXCEPT 18/19.
MARINE...GALES 035 036 AND ALL COASTAL ZONES.
         SCA REMAINDER OF ZONES.

PES/LN