High Wind in Wyoming, May 3, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1041 AM MDT FRI MAY 3 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY...SAT...SUN...

COLD FRONT MOVING ABOUT TWO HOURS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND WITH A BIT MORE
MOISTURE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND THAN EXPECTED. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE HARLOWTON AND JUDITH GAP AREAS
WITH RAIN SHOWERS AROUND BOZEMAN PASS. FRONT PUSHED INTO THE LIVINGSTON
AND BILLINGS VICINITY AT ABOUT 1030 AM. WITH PRECIPITATION ALREADY
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WILL UP POPS ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN ZONES AND
SOUTHEAST AND REFLECT EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN MY CENTRAL AREAS.
CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO
WASHINGTON AND OREGON MON AND TUES...THEN SLIDING EASTWARD WED. AVN AND
NEW MRF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS BY SHOWING A GOOD
SWATH OF PRECIP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING
STARTING MON NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED. BY LATE WED INTO THURS...
ZONAL FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. MON NIGHT INTO WED MORNING
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS EXTENDED. QPF AMTS ACROSS THE MT/WY
BORDER APPROACH 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID...AND THIS ALSO HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS MODEL PROGS. 100KT JET AT 300MB MOVES OVER
THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUES PROVIDING A GOOD AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
IN ADDITION...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WY ESTABLISHING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPSLOPE IN MOST AREAS. IT GETS MORE INTERESTING
WHEN THE 700MB AND 850MB TEMPS ARE FACTORED INTO THE EQUATION. 700MB
TEMPS DURING THE DAY TUES ARE AROUND -12C WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -3C.
THIS COULD BE MEAN HIGHS TEMPS TUES MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER 40S. THINK
THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUES. FMR GIVES A HIGH OF 49 DEGREES FOR TUES WITH THE MEX GIVING 41
DEGREES. THINK LOWER 40S MAY BE MORE IN LINE. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH
FOR TUES MAY BE TOO WARM BUT WILL LEAVE FOR NOW. PLAN NO CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL NEED TO BRIEF THE DAY SHIFT ABOUT
POSSIBLE COLDER TEMPS WITH SOME SNOW.  HOOLEY

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 032/067 038/070 038/064 040/051 031/044 028/053
    4/N 00/U    00/B    22/B    34/W    44/W    22/E
LVM 061 032/065 037/068 036/060 033/046 029/043 023/050
    6/W 00/U    00/B    33/W    44/W    44/W    22/E
HDN 063 032/067 036/070 035/065 042/053 032/044 029/053
    4/N 00/U    00/B    22/B    34/W    44/W    22/E
MLS 061 030/065 036/069 038/066 041/052 030/049 029/055
    4/N 20/B    00/B    22/B    23/W    44/W    22/E
4BQ 063 030/066 035/070 038/065 042/055 031/047 027/054
    6/W 20/U    00/B    02/B    23/W    44/W    22/E
BHK 061 030/065 034/068 036/064 045/057 032/046 027/051
    4/N 20/B    00/B    22/B    23/W    44/W    22/E
SHR 066 035/067 035/071 037/064 039/057 029/043 027/053
    6/W 20/U    00/B    02/B    34/W    44/W    22/E

.BYZ...NONE.