Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, May 3, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2002

CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE AS WE SPEAK, TEMPS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH A CLEARING AREA OF THE MID DECK
APPROACHING US FROM CENTRAL GA. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO RISING AS
MOISTURE FLOW IS RETURNING AFTER MORNING OUT FLOW BOUNDARY HAS ALL
BUT WASHED OUT. WILL WAIT ON SPC FOR POSSIBLE BOX ISSUANCE. CURRENT
THINKING NOW IS THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER
THE GUN, HOWEVER WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE NC/SC BORDER THE
ENTIRE CWA COULD BECOME UNSTABLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AND KEEP TEMPS AROUND
THE DEWPOINT AS ATMS BECOMES SATURATED. QPF IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THE
12 HR PERIOD SO WILL MENTION RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. ALSO THE
PREFERRED THICKNESS FOR HEAVY RAIN RUNS RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA AND
WITH PWS 1.8 INCHES ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY MOIST. ETA INDICATES
THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A SECONDARY
SURGE WILL BACKDOOR THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 0600Z TONIGHT WITH
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY.

SATURDAY...IN-SITU WEDGE TAKES SHAPE AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC. COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE
COASTAL TROUGH AS IT SLIDES INLAND TO AROUND OGB. I BROKE THEM OUT
INTO A SEPARATE ZONE WITH WARMER TEMPS...LOWER 70S AND WINDS
BECOMING SE. LANCASTER WILL BE IN THE SOUP WITH TEMPS BARELY GETTING
OUT OF THE MID 60S. AND OF COURSE CAE WILL BE IN THE TRANSITION
ZONE. WILL MENTION TSTMS NEAR OGB IN THE AFTERNOON AS LIS GET TO -2
TO -4. OTW NO MENTION OF TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDGE WILL HOLD IN AND SCOUR OUT
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
H5 HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HEAT IN
STORE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA ON THURSDAY.

FCSTID = 17
CAE   66  65  55  78 /  90  70  30  10
AGS   63  70  53  81 /  90  70  30  10
SSC   65  68  55  77 /  90  70  30  10
OGB   67  73  56  80 /  90  70  30  10

.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-032330-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
240 PM EDT FRI MAY 3 2002

THIS STATEMENT PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: AIKEN...BAMBERG...
BARNWELL...BURKE...CALHOUN...CHESTERFIELD...CLARENDON...COLUMBIA...
EDGEFIELD...FAIRFIELD...KERSHAW...LANCASTER...LEE...LEXINGTON...
LINCOLN...MCCORMICK...MCDUFFIE...NEWBERRY...ORANGEBURG...RICHLAND...
RICHMOND...SALUDA AND SUMTER.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING.
EXPECT FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH...AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND ONE-HALF OF AN INCH WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD POSSIBLY BECOME SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH AND DIME-SIZE HAIL.

A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST NORTH OF THE FRONT
AND RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY IN THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR. THE RAIN COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS...OR FLOOD WATCHES OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

RJL