High Wind in Wyoming, February 11, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
223 AM MST MON FEB 11 2002

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY...TUE...WED...
PACKAGE ALREADY HIGHLIGHTS THE BIG FEATURES SO MUCH OF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE WILL BE TWEAKING THE DETAILS ON TODAYS FORECAST. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL FRONT IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AT 500 MB WITH WINDS
REACHING 85 KNOTS OR GREATER AND TEMPERATURES FALLING 6 C BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z. THIS WILL GENERATE CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AROUND NOON-TIME
AS THE LOW LEVEL FRONT WILL NOT KEEP UP AND TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO RISE A BIT FROM THEIR HIGH OVERNIGHT MINS. WILL BE BUMPING UP TEMPS
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...AND HAVE COORD WITH GGW AND BIS. 700 MB SHOWS
TEMPS FALLING 9C BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AND WINDS AT 75 KNOTS OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...COMBINING WITH THE INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 850-700MB LAPSE RATES ARE OVER
9C/KM AND THE 06Z ETA IS EVEN GENERATING SOME CAPE. WILL BE UPPING THE
WORDING FOR WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FOR 40 TO 50 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS LIVINGSTON WHERE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BLOW AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. WILL EXTEND
THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN PARK COUNTY UNTIL 800 AM.

AFTER TODAY...PATTERN QUIETS CONSIDERABLY AS A NEW RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE BUILDS ENOUGH INTO ALBERTA TO LIMIT
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS BUT WITH BASIN
PRESSURES STILL HIGH SOME DOWNSLOPE WILL EXIST. LESS MIXING WILL
TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPS AND CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS. RIDGE
WEAKENS WEDNESDAY AS A SPLITTING SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
THE STRONGER PIECE OVER NORTHERN ALBERTA HELPING LEESIDE TROUGHING TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN.

LATEST OBS FROM COD AND SHERIDAN SHOWING 52 DEGREES SO WILL BE RAISING
SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND WYOMING TEMPS INTO THE 50S AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

NO MAJOR CHANGES OR DIFFERENCES WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES FOR THURS AND FRI. FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC
NW. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE ON SUN.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE WESTERLY PROVIDING
DOWNSLOPE AGAIN. THEREFORE...BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
HOWEVER...THE ENERGY WITH IT LOOKS TO SPLIT OFF TO OUR NORTH AND
SOUTH WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE SLIDING WAY TO OUR SOUTH. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...FMR GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM SO WILL
BASE TEMPS CLOSER TO THE MEX. CURRENT PACKAGE IS ON TRACK SO NO UPDATES
PLANNED.  HOOLEY

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 018/037 022/045 024/043 025/048 025/048 023/043
    0/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/E
LVM 040 014/034 020/044 023/040 024/042 024/042 022/038
    2/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/E
HDN 051 015/038 020/046 023/044 023/050 023/050 021/045
    0/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/E
MLS 050 018/035 018/045 020/041 021/046 023/046 021/040
    0/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/E
4BQ 052 015/034 017/044 019/040 020/045 023/045 020/041
    0/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/E
BHK 049 014/032 015/040 018/038 018/043 019/042 016/037
    0/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/E
SHR 055 012/034 012/044 020/042 021/044 022/046 019/040
    0/N 00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    00/B    02/E

.BYZ...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 800 AM FOR PARK COUNTY
       HIGH WIND WARNING MONDAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
       CENTRAL MONTANA
       HIGH WIND WARNING MONDAY FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING.