High Wind in New Jersey, February 11, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
135 AM EST MON FEB 11 2002

1ST FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ENDING THE STEADY RAIN. THE
2ND...STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS AM. THE
GRADIENT BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOWS BLYR WINDS 30K OR MORE WITH 850
WINDS OF 45K. HOWEVER...UPON CLOSER LOOK AT THE MESOETA
SOUNDINGS...THERE ARE SOME 50K WINDS EMBEDDED BELOW 850...MAINLY
NORTH.

MODELS ALSO SHOW STRONG NVA AND 3HRLY PRES RISES OF 6-7MB INDICATING
GOOD MIXING OF THE WINDS DOWN FROM ALFT. THEREFORE...I WILL ISSUE A
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS WITH GUSTS TO 50 NORTH AND 45 CENTRAL
AND SOUTH. WINDS SHOULD MAX OUT THIS AM BUT IT WILL STILL BE QUITE
WINDY THIS AFTN SO I WILL GO FOR THE WIND ADVISORY ALL DAY.

PER PCPN...RAIN SHWERS CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. ALL THE PCPN WAS TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH ERN OHIO/WRN PA. THEREFORE...I WILL ONLY HAVE CHC POPS SOUTH
BUT WILL GO TO A CATEGORICAL NORTH EARLY THIS AM. SNOW AMNTS OF 1 TO
2 INCHES PSBL IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ AS MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN OBS
WITH THE FRONT AND A SNOW BURST IS PSBL IN THE MTNS.

THEN DRY TNGT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS...DROP THIS MRNG BEHIND THE FRONT THE LEVEL OUT UNTIL LATE
AFTN WHEN THEY WILL DROP AGAIN. GUIDANCE TEMPS GENLY OK.

MARINE...WILL GO GALES ALL AREAS. ALSO...THE AVN GUIDANCE SHOWS NEG
1.9 DEPARTURE FOR ACY. THE NGM IS LESS OF A DEPARTURE. THE AVN IS
PREFERRED SINCE IT IS FCSTG THE SFC WINDS BETTER THAN THE NGM.
THERFORE...WE WILL PUT IN BLOWOUT TIDES IN THE MARINE FCST.

MPO   32  12  39  25 /  60   0   0   0
ABE   36  15  40  28 /  40   0   0   0
RDG   36  15  40  28 /  40   0   0   0
PHL   44  20  45  33 /  20   0   0   0
12N   32  12  39  25 /  60   0   0   0
SMQ   41  18  43  31 /  40   0   0   0
TTN   41  18  43  31 /  40   0   0   0
MIV   46  21  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ACY   47  25  45  35 /  10   0   0   0
ILG   44  20  45  33 /  20   0   0   0
DOV   46  21  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
GED   46  21  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ESN   46  21  46  33 /  10   0   0   0

.PHI...
DE...WIND ADVISORY TODAY. DEZ001>003.
MD...WIND ADVISORY TODAY. MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY TODAY. NJZ001-007>010-012-012-015>023.
PA...WIND ADVISORY TODAY. PAZ054-055-060>062-067>071.
MARINE...GALES DEL BAY AND NJ/DE COASTS.

RNS

DEZ001>004-NJZ012>026-PAZ067>071-ANZ450>455-430-431-112200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - POSSIBLE BLOWOUT TIDES TODAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST MON FEB 11 2002

...BLOWOUT TIDES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH IS SET TO PASS OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS AND ON DELAWARE BAY. THESE WINDS...COMBINED WITH THE
ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON...ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
BLOWOUT TIDE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.0 FEET BELOW MLLW.

THE TIME OF LOW TIDE ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE ATLANTIC
COASTS IS BETWEEN 100 PM AND 130 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIME OF LOW
TIDE FURTHER UP DELAWARE BAY IS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AND TIDES WILL RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL LEVELS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO LEAVE EXTRA LINE FOR THEIR VESSELS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER RANGE OF TIDES THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS
WATCH FOR LESSENED DRAFT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/PHI IN SMALL LETTERS.