Hail in Wisconsin, May 30, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2002

A S/W TROF WAS MOVG THROUGH MN EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOC ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER FAR EASTERN MN AND WSTRN WI. WV IMAGERY
SHOWED A STG UPPER JET AND S/W TROF MOVG INTO S ALBERTA. AT THE SFC...
A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED ACROSS WI...EXTENDING FROM OEO-
ISW-SBM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE NEAR LK WINNIPEG
SOUTHWARD TO THE EASTERN DAKS. AREAS OF FOG WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG NR THE LK/BAY AND RIVER VALLEYS.

SPC HAS ENTIRE GRB CWA IN A SLGT RISK THIS AFT/EVG...WHICH LOOKS FINE.
WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AND TDS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S...CAPES SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG THIS AFT/EARLY EVG.
ALSO...WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ETA
HELICITIES OF 200-300. MAIN PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
PROGGED ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH MEANS IT WONT
MOVE THROUGH GRB CWA UNTIL THIS EVG. ALSO...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FCST
TO COME THROUGH IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST S/W TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
MORNING...EXITING EASTERN WI BY 18Z. THE SECOND WAVE...ASSOC WITH THE
STG JET ENERGY OVER SW CANADA...WILL ARRIVE AROUND 00Z. SO...DESPITE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTAB...THE TIMING OF SFC AND UPPER FEATURES
MAKES THE SVR THREAT A TOUGH CALL. SINCE FIRST WAVE WILL EXIT FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE DAY...EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO HAVE TIME TO RELOAD BEFORE THE
SECOND WAVE OF DYNAMICS AND THE COLD FRONT APPROACH LATE THIS AFT/EVG.
MAIN TRIGGER WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE LFQ OF THE STG UPPER JET AS IT
PUNCHES INTO NE WI. WILL MENTION SVR WORDING FOR THE AFT/EARLY EVG
FOR OUR WSTRN COUNTIES...AND LATE AFT/EVG IN THE EAST. MAV HAS BEEN
A LITTLE COOL AS OF LATE...SO WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE WARMER FWC NUMBERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT OUT OF EASTERN WI SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...
FOLLOWED BY DRY AND WARM WEATHER ON FRI AND SAT. A STG SFC/H8 WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE RGN ON SUN...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA.
HAVE BEEFED PRECIP WORDING UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY...AND DROPPED
TEMPS BACK A NOTCH OR TWO. REST OF THE CURRENT EFP LOOKS GOOD.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-301900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1150 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES...COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PROVIDING THE
TRIGGER FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

ECKBERG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB