Flood in Wisconsin, June 23 to 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2002

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH MEAN TROF OFF THE WEST COAST AND UPR RIDGE
STRETCHED OUT FM THE DESERT SW TO THE MID-ATL STATES WL PERSIST FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THIS FCST CYCLE. UPR TROF THEN EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY FORM OVER ERN CANADA EARLY IN THE WK...WITH RIDGE BUILDING NWD
ACRS THE ROCKIES.

UPR RIDGE JUST S OF MY FCST AREA WL KEEP FRONTAL ZONE NR/ACRS MY FCST
AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK EARLY IN AVN FCST GETS
FRONT/SFC PRESSURE PATTERN INTO WEIRD CONFIGURATION FROM WHICH IT NEVER
SEEMS TO RECOVER. AVN/MAV GUIDANCE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED. FOLLOWED ETA/MET
GUIDANCE FOR FCST.

WARM FRONT LIFTG N ACRS MY FCST AREA....OUTFLOW FM LARGE TSTM COMPLEX
ACRS MN...AND NEW COLD FRONT BEING DRIVEN SWD BY SHRTWV MOVG EWD ACRS
SRN CAN SHOULD MERGE TDA OVER FAR NRN WI. MEANWHILE...SML CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED VORT IN NRN PLAINS WL ARRIVE IN THE AREA MID-DAY AND SHOULD
GENERATE SHRA/TSTMS. UPPED POPS IN THE N INTO LIKELY CATEGORY AND
MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THAT AREA DID NOT RECEIVE VERY HVY
RAINS YDA...SO FLASH FLOOD WATCH DID NOT SEEM NEEDED. KEY AREA OF
CONCERN WAS CENTRAL WI...WHICH IS STILL RECOVERING FM EXCESSIVE RAINS
LAST NGT. VIRTUALLY ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THAT AREA WL PRODUCE
FLOODING. CONSIDERED ISSUING FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA...BUT BEST GUESS
WAS THAT ANY HVY RAIN WOULD FOCUS N OF THAT AREA. HOWEVER...WL NEED TO
WATCH THAT SITN VERY CLOSELY. MOST OF MY FCST AREA IN DY 1 SLGT RISK OF
SVR WX. AGREE THAT RISK EXISTS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE EXPLICIT SVR WORDING IN FCST YET.

FRONT WL LIKELY GET DRIVEN FARTHER S ACRS MY FCST AREA TNGT...THEN
RETURN NWD MON AS SFC LOW HEADS FOR THE NRN PLAINS. KEPT LIKELY POPS
ACRS THE N TNGT...WITH CHC IN THE S. KEPT CHC ACRS THE RGN MON...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING PCPN IN THE MORNING. ALSO
KEPT CHC TUE AS FRONT WL BE CLOSE TO THE AREA. MID-LVL SYSTEM WL BE
TOPPING RIDGE AND HEADING EWD ACRS SRN CAN TUE. THAT WL CAUSE MID-UPR
WIND FIELDS TO INCR SIGNIFICANTLY...THUS RISK OF SVR LIKELY TO BE HIGHER
TUE.

DEVELOPMENT OF ERN NOAM LNGWV TROF WL EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE FRONT S AND
ALLOW DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACRS THE AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...THEN RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH LIKELY TO
BRING WARMER TEMPS BY NEXT WEEKEND. CONTD BASIC TREND OF PREV FOR LATTER
PERIODS.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DETAILING SVR WX THREAT AND HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
DETAILING HVY RAIN THREAT WL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

COORD W LSE...MKE...AND MQT.

.GRB...NONE.

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