Hail and Damaging Winds in South Dakota, June 23 to 24, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/N-EAST SD AND W-CENTRAL MN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2002

UPPER TROUGH OVER NE MT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE NE INTO S CANADA AND
WEAKEN QUITE A BIT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WK S/W LOBE MOVG AROUND
THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. ALSO...THE LL
WINDS ACROSS THE ABR CWA WILL TURN FROM SE TO SW TO W THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CWA FROM THE WEST. SCT TSRAS OCCURRING ACROSS SE AND EC SD
AND IN NW SD AND SW ND WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP INTO NC AND NE SD AND WC
MN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT/LL CONVERGENT
AREA LIFTS VERY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THIS AREA. LIS DOWN TO -10 THIS
AFTN AND DWPTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. THE LAPS CIN HAS
DROPPED TO BELOW 50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ABR CWA
THIS AFTN. ALSO...GOOD WIND SHEAR PROFILE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS. THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST MAY ALSO KICK OFF SOME
TSRAS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FOR TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. FOR MON...THE ETA SHOWS
THE WK BOUNDARY/TROUGH STALLING ACROSS E SD WAITING FOR THE NEXT S/W
TO MOVE THROUGH MON AFTN AND NIGHT. THEREFORE...BELIEVE THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA WILL HAVE A CHC OF TSRAS AGAIN MON AFTN AND NIGHT.
IT WILL BE A VERY WARM BUT LESS HUMID DAY ON MONDAY WITH GENERALLY
NW WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA EXCEPT THE FAR E. TUESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH GENERALLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH WED NIGHT AS DRY N TO
NW WINDS FROM SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO
P/C SKIES.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVR THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE NEXT WV
WILL MOVE THRU ON SAT...BUT LITTLE MSTR...AND NO CONFIDENCE AT THIS
TIME. LOOK FOR WARM...DRY CONDITIONS THRU EXTND PD.

.ABR...NONE

MOHR/MARSHALL