Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, July 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
215 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

CURRENT CONVECTION OUT TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS
EVENING AS THE 500 MB VORT MAX CONTINUES IT EASTWARD PROGRESS.
CONVECTION WILL HAVE VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO WORK WITH AS CAPES SOAR TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG AND HELICITY VALUES RISE TO 200 TO 250 WITH A SOUTH
SURFACE WIND AND 30 KT WESTERLY WIND AT 800 MB. DO NOT EXPECT STORMS TO
BE BIG HAIL PRODUCERS WITH FREEZING LEVELS AT ABOUT 14K FEET BUT EXPECT
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IS STORMS CONTINUE TO
FORM INTO A LINE OUT TO THE WEST. MAY BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP IN
THE WEST DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE CONVECTION IS TO THE CWA AND HOW WELL IT
HOLDS TOGETHER.

WE REMAIN IN A WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR SUNDAY. HOWEVER SEVERE THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVER OUR CWA. OUR CAPES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO 1000 J/KG WITH BARELY ANY HELICITY AS THE COLUMN IS
FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOST UNSTABLE AIR APPEARS TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AS
CAPES ARE ALMOST 4000 J/KG. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION
MAY BE PRESENT TO SET OFF CONVECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND
SEVERE APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION MOVING TO THE EAST BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH
QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER QUIET ON TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE IN THE 80S.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP US
DRY ON WENDESDAY. HOWEVER A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
QUIET WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY WITH A COOL NORTHEAST WIND PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM
GETTING OUT OF THE 70S.

.GRB...NONE.

KURIMSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-271500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU
TO GREEN BAY TO KEWAUNEE...AND OCCUR BETWEEN 3:00 PM AND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON. THE STORMS SHOULD
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THEY PUSH EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FIRST STORMS THAT AFFECT THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. ONCE THE STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL
DECREASE AND THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE.

THE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. A HOT AND HUMID
DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL NEAR OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES
DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD EXCEED 100. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THOSE STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE.

EVERYONE IS URGE TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NECESSARY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-272030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK TODAY WILL BE SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM MERRILL TO GREEN BAY TO KEWAUNEE...AND OCCUR BETWEEN 3:00 PM
AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AHEAD
OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AS THEY PUSH EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FIRST STORMS THAT AFFECT THE AREA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS
AND DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. ONCE THE STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL
DECREASE AND THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE.

THE STORMS WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. A HOT AND HUMID
DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL NEAR OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY...HEAT INDICES
DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD EXCEED 100. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THOSE STORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE.

EVERYONE IS URGE TO CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB