Hail and Damaging Winds in Minnesota, July 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
200 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY FOR OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.
CONVECTION MOVING IN THE FROM THE DAKOTAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDDLE
LEVEL TROUGH...SOME DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
CORE STILL OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THETA E ADVECTION THAT THE
MESO ETA MODEL FORECASTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. EXTRAPOLATION
OF SOUTH DAKOTA CONVECTION SUGGESTS IT WILL REACH PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS 6 AM...OTHER CONVECTIVE REMNANTS
ALREADY SKIRTING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA IS ALSO MAKING PROGRESS NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CONVECTION
WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY 6 TO 7 AM BUT THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
BYPASS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY TODAY. THE MESO ETA MODEL HINTS THAT
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL END UP ALONG THE
MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG 1000 TO 850 MB
THETA E ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN 850 MB LIFTED INDEX INCREASING TO MINUS 6 AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES PEAKING AT JUST OVER 2 INCHES. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FROM MINNEAPOLIS SOUTH AND EAST MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO END EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORT WAVE PASSED EAST INTO WISCONSIN AND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN SUGGESTING SUBSIDENCE. ANOTHER 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE 850 MB
LIFTED INDEX IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO MINUS 6 BY 4 PM OVER CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO 2.3 INCHES OVER
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 9 PM SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A GOOD PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET SIGNATURE ON THE MESO ETA MODEL THAT
SUPPORTS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION.

.MSP...NONE.
 WH

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-271700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
524 AM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL
AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
WESTERN MINNESOTA.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT CONVERGE ON CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRONGEST WIND FIELDS...
WILL BE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. THIS AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM THE MILLE LACS
LAKE...TO THE  TWIN CITIES...TO FAIRMONT IS UNDER THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SPOTTERS...AND THE PUBLIC ALIKE SHOULD KEEP
ABREAST OF THE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND STAY TUNED FOR
LATER STATEMENTS...WATCHES...OR WARNINGS.

JPR