Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
246 PM CDT SAT JUL 27 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY STILL IN CENTRAL PART OF CWA WITH VERY WEAK CAP
IN PLACE. ALSO UPPER COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT UPPER TROUGH
FORECAST TO MOVE IN DURING DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING A
WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH 30 TO 40 POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AND THEN ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY MORNING NEAR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. INVERTED-V SOUNDING THIS EVENING WOULD SUGGEST ANY STRONG
STORMS TO PUT OUT SOME BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS.

AS FOR TEMPS FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR WARMEST IN THE EAST WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 70S EAST TO MID AND UPPER 60S
WEST. FOR HIGHS SUNDAY, IT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH CLOUD DEVELOPS
AS MID LEVEL COOLING ENTERS AREA. FOR NOW WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100. LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A
LITTLE COOLER BEHIND FRONT AS DEWPOINTS FALL, AND FOR MONDAY
PREVIOUS PACKAGE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH HIGH BACK IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS WIND TURN SOUTH LATE IN PM. FWC GUIDANCE TEMPS STILL
LOOK A LITTLE COOL FOR HIGHS.

DAYS 3-7...

AFTER A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER
THE WEEKEND, A RETURN TO VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 20N/140E-160E HAS
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT, AND A PAIR OF ANTICYCLONES ARE EVIDENT IN THE
150 MB WIND ANOMALY FIELDS ALONG 150 EAST CENTERED AROUND 20S AND
40N. DAILY ANOMALY CHARTS SUGGEST ENERGY DISPERSION FROM THE LARGE
THUNDERSTORM AREA IS PROPAGATING DOWNSTREAM AND ENHANCING A CYCLONE
NEAR 60N/180 AND AN ANTICYCLONIC GYRE NEAR 140W/60N. THE
AMPLIFICATION OF A HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION
OF A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IS CONSISTENT WITH
THIS EVOLUTION AND SEEMS VERY REASONABLE. THE MRF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
AND THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE MRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
GENERAL EVOLUTION, ALTHOUGH DETAILS DIFFER.

THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST REFLECTS CURRENT THINKING WELL, AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED. THE 00Z MRF ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE A
COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS WAVE
RIPPLES OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT I AM RELUCTANT
TO INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   75  97  68  93 /  30  40  40  10
GCK   73  96  65  93 /  30  40  40   0
EHA   68  99  66  95 /  30  40  40   0
LBL   71 100  67  95 /  30  40  40   0
HYS   72  95  68  92 /  30  40  40  10
P28   75 101  71  94 /  30  40  40  30

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID =06/01