Hail and Damaging Wind in West Virginia, September 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2002

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300 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2002

...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION BUT MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH
TIMING OF SMALL WAVES THAT SERVE AS KICKERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
SMALL POPS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THU
NIGHT DRY FOR NOW. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN A BIT LOW ON DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE ON THURSDAY.

...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER ON THE STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION.  EVEN THOUGH THE ETA IS STILL A BIT SLOWER THAN THE
AVN...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FRONT COMING THROUGH SOMETIME SATURDAY
NIGHT.  THE EFFECTS OF THE FRONT IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL WILL BE MAINLY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...AND IT
LOOKS LIKE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THE
DAY FRIDAY...IT WILL BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY AND REMAIN
WITH US THROUGH TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END/RY/JMV

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1014 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
LARGE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
AND FILL IN WITH CUMULUS. SHOULD BE SOME GOOD SUNSHINE BREAKS
HOWEVER...SO FEEL PARTLY CLOUDY WOULD BE BETTER WORDING. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR A BIT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IMPULSE
OVER TN/SOUTHERN KY SHOULD BE EFFECTING SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

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320 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING WARM FRONT THROUGH CWA
TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT THIS MORNING.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AND WEAK VORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CHC POPS AGAIN SHOULD SUFFICE.  TEMPS ARE IN
LINE WITH REST OF NDFD CLUSTER AND ONLY MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HERE
AND THERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
OVERALL...FCST VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HAVE ADDED TIMING
TO PCPN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
MOISTURE COMING INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...A
FOCUSING MECHANISM IS LACKING AFTER A SHORTWAVE PASSES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.  OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING...HAVING A HARD TIME
SEEING MUCH PCPN UNTIL FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SATURDAY.  ALSO HAVE THINNED CLOUDS A LITTLE MAINLY DURING
THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXES BOTH THURS AND
FRI.  HAVE GONE TOWARD WARMER AVN NUMBERS AS NGM SEEMS TO CLOUDY AND
WET.

AVN AND ETA BOTH SHOW A WEAKENING INITIAL FRONT STALLING TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT.  THIS WILL LEAVE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FOR THE
NRN STREAM COLD FRONT TO USE ON SAT.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A LONGER
PCPN PERIOD FRI NIGHT.  MAY NEED HIGHER POPS...WILL LEAVE FOR DAY
SHIFT TO COORDINATE.

OTHERWISE..HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS
PART OF THE FCST IS UNCHANGED.

OHZ083-086-182300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
606 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

AS OF 6 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS GALLIA COUNTY...AND ANOTHER
STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS JACKSON COUNTY.  THE
GALLIA COUNTY STORM HAD BEEN PARTICULARLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS SMALL
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  RAINFALL COULD EXCEED ONE INCH
WITHIN ONE HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

.END/TRM

OHZ085-WVZ008-182315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

AS OF 610 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED A HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...CLOSE
TO THE OHIO RIVER.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS SMALL
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM.  RAINFALL COULD EXCEED ONE INCH
WITHIN ONE HOUR.  THE STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RAVENSWOOD AREA AS
IT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...AND MAY ALSO AFFECT
EXTREME EASTERN MEIGS COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

.END/TRM