Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, September 18, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
359 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

TNGT:
COMPLEX WX PAT WITH MODELS STRUGGLING. BELIEVE BOTH ETA/AVN HAVE
SGFNT PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTION. AVN DVLPS SPURIOUS VORT MAX AND ETA
WITH THE NOW TYPICAL SOGGY SOLUTION.  WITH 2 MAIN LOWS...BELIEVE
FLOW ACRS MOST OF FCST AREA WL LKLY LEAD TO LESS THAN OPTIMAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR SVR...ALTHO INSTAB AND SPD SHEAR GOOD ENUF TO
KEEP A MENTION OF SVR.  SUSPECT PCPN WL QUICKLY LINE OUT...WITH
TRAILING STRATIFORM PCPN ENLARGING SOMETIME AROUND MIDNGT AND BACK
EDGE NOT MOVING OR RETROGRADING SLGTLY AS MAIN UPR LOW APCHS AND
DIFFLUENCE INCRS.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN...MAINLY EAST OF
I-35.  SUSPECT SVR POTNL WL MAINLY BE ACRS S CNTRL KS BFR MIDNGT.
BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE DMGG WNDS WITH BOW ECHO AND HAIL ERY.
BELIEVE TORNADO THREAT IS SML.  NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABT FLOODING
POTENTIAL ATTM GIVEN LACK OF SGFNT H85 FNT/MSTR AND ANTECENDENT
CONDITIONS.

THU:
POTENTIALLY ONGOING PCPN ERN HALF OF FCST AREA WITH DRY SLOT PUSHING
INTO MIDDLE OF FCST AREA.  PCPN WOULD LKLY TO MOVE INTO/DVLP TO THE
NW OF FCST AREA INVOF THE CORE OF UPR LO.  STILL NEED TO EXAMINE
INSTAB PROGS/SOUNDINGS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THUNDER.
AND WOULD SEEM TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR PESKY COLD AIR FUNNELS.

THU NGT:
PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS UPR SYS LIFTS NE.  CONCERN IS THAT SE
KS MAY GET DRY SLOTTED AND NEVER HAVE ANY PCPN FM CORE WORK INTO
THAT AREA.  FOR NOW WL CONT GOING SML POPS...WHILE INCRG POPS IN ERN
PORTION OF NRN COUNTIES.

FRI-SAT:
WITH HI PRES BUILDING INTO REGION SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON
FRI. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY REACH THE AREA DURG SAT AS
THE UPR TROF DIGS INTO NRN PLAINS.  MSTR RETURN APPRS UNLKLY
ATTM...AND HAVE NIXED REMAINING POPS.

SUN-MON:
APPRS THAT RETURN FLOW WL DVLP THIS PD WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
NICELY.  SOME DISAGREEMENT BTWN ECMWF/GFS ON TEMPS...WITH ECMWF LKLY
OVERDOING DNSLP AND WARMING TO THE W AND GFS UNDERDOING IT.  HAVE
SPLIT DIFFERENCE ON TEMPS...WHICH WAS A FEW DEG WARMER THAN WHAT WAS
GOING.

TUE-WED:
FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT FNT DROPPING IN FM THE N AND THE ASSOCIATED UPR
TROF. AS TYPICAL...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND ECMWF A BIT
SLOWER...WITH SVRL GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING SLOWER SOLUTIONS.  WOULD
APPR THAT THE MOST LKLY TIME FOR PCPN WOULD BE TUE NGT/WED...WHICH
IS A TAD SLOWER THAT MODELS WOULD SUG AT FACE VALUE.  HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR SOME MORE SLOWING OF THE SYS.  TEMPS SLGTLY
COOLER TUE DUE TO CLDS AND WED FM COLD AIR ADVCTN.  SOME CONCERN
THAT GIVEN TEMP RANGE MAY NOT BE ENUF WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
GRADIENT ACRS THE AREA.

FCSTID =   17/HOWERTON
ICT   62  69  54  77 /  70  60  20  10
HUT   59  68  53  78 /  60  60  20  10
EWK   61  68  54  77 /  70  60  30  10
EQA   63  69  55  76 /  70  60  30  10
WLD   64  70  55  77 /  70  60  20  10
RSL   55  65  49  78 /  50  70  20  10
GBD   56  66  51  79 /  50  70  20  10
SLN   58  67  53  77 /  60  60  40  10
MPR   61  68  54  77 /  70  60  30  10
CFV   68  72  57  75 /  70  80  30  10
CNU   66  71  57  75 /  80  80  30  10
K88   66  70  56  75 /  80  80  40  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1201 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND
MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND
DRYLINE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY EARLY THIS EVENING, AND INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. A CAP
OF WARMER AIR ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUPPRESSED
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER 5 PM, AND BUILD
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SOMETIME LATER ON. WIND SHEAR PROFILES
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED SUPER-CELLS, MAINLY FOR AREAS
WEST OF TURNPIKE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A LINE OF STORMS, AND MOVE
EAST INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
LINE WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS RECEIVING
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE AREA GREATEST AT RISK WILL BE MAINLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAINFALL
COULD LINGER WELL INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THUS POSSIBLY CREATING A
FLOOD THREAT FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING, AND MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST UPDATES, OR CHECK
OUT OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB, AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT.

&&

...CHANGES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO) ARE COMING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA WILL BE MAKING CHANGES TO
OUR PROCEDURES IN REGARD TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO).
BEGINNING OCTOBER FIRST, THE HWO WILL BE TRANSMITTED WITH ITS OWN
UNIQUE IDENTIFIER OR HEADER. THE NEW PRODUCT HEADER AND IDENTIFIER
WILL BE

WMO HEADER:          FLUS43  KICT
AWIPS IDENTIFIER:    TOPHWOICT

ALONG WITH A NEW HEADER AND IDENTIFIER, OTHER CHANGES WILL BE
NOTICED.  THE HWO PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAILY BASIS REGARDLESS
OF WEATHER CONDITIONS.  THE HWO IS GOING TO COVER CONVECTIVE,
WINTER, AND NON PRECIPITATION HAZARDS.  THE HWO WILL PRIMARILY BE
ISSUED BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 11 AM AND NOON, HOWEVER, THE HWO MAY BE
ISSUED ANY TIME THAT CONDITIONS WARRANT.  THE HWO IS ALSO GOING
TO EXTEND BEYOND THE USUAL 24 HOURS AND INCLUDE AN OUTLOOK THROUGH
SEVEN DAYS.  A CHANGE IN THE PRODUCTS FORMAT WILL ALSO BE NOTED.
PLEASE SEE BELOW FOR A GENERIC EXAMPLE.

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CHANGES WITH THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK, YOU MAY CONTACT CHANCE HAYES OR RICHARD ELDER AT
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WICHITA AT 316-942-8483.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
TIME AND DATE INFORMATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE RECOGNIZED HERE

.DAY ONE...
OUR OFFICE WILL DISCUSS EACH HAZARDS IMPACT FOR THE FIRST AND
SECOND PERIODS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
INSTRUCTIONS TO EMERGENCY MANAGERS, MEDIA, AND SPOTTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
OUR OFFICE WILL DISCUSS IN VERY GENERIC TERMS WHAT TYPES OF
CONDITIONS MAY BE LOOMING ON THE HORIZON.  BASICALLY, A HEADS UP
FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

CJ